From a common sensical point of view, war is a political ofshooot which is mearnt to determine the poltics of a country. However, the punishing hand of war stretches to bring disorder in economic parameters and social uptick of human lives.

The Russian-Ukranian conflict has been taken as a white skin war, with most African countries giving a crippled hand and leg to it. However, the war has the capacity of causing economic woes and a busload of problems in Africa at large, from inflation, interest rates, commodity prices and ultimately, economic growth. Despite the geographical distance, there are important ties between Ukraine and Africa, including more than 8,000 Moroccans and 4,000 Nigerians studying in Ukraine and over $4 billion in exports from Ukraine to Africa.

In this article, I will talk about the influence of the Ukranian crises on Africa’s food supplies.

The supply of wheat, maize and sunflower have suffered a major setback from the Ukranian crisis. Ukraine and Russia have a bigger footprint in the agricultural sector with far reaching effects in African markets.

The world’s largest country by territory, Russia ranks third in the world in terms of arable land with 123 million hectares. Agricultural lands occupy 13 % of the territory of Russia. Wheat, sugar beet, potatoes and cereals (maize, barley, oats and rye) are Russia’s most important crops. on the other hand, 70% of Ukraine is covered by agricultural land, with agric the most promising sector of its economy. Research show that about 25 % of the world’s reserves of black soil, agriculture is Ukraine’s largest export industry.

Ukraine and Russia are the world’s biggest producers of wheat and sunflower oil, with the nations also featuring leading nations in producing maize. In terms of oil, the two countries accounted for 60% of the global production in 2020-21 with Ukraine producing 5.9 million mt of sunflower oil in 2020-21, while Russia's production reached 5.1 million mt.

Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of wheat, with both accounting for a combined 23% of global wheat trade in 2021-22 marketing year, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Russia is the largest word’s wheat producer and exporter, followed by Ukraine. In terms of maize production, Ukraine is ranked fourth in the world with both countries accounting for 14% of maize exports in 2020. This speaks that there is significant agricultural trade between countries on the continent and Russia and Ukraine.

Research shows that African countries imported agricultural products worth US$4 billion from Russia in 2020. About 90% of this was wheat, and 6% was sunflower oil. Major importing countries were Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of the imports, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Similarly, Ukraine exported US$2.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the African continent in 2020. About 48% of this was wheat, 31% maize, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley, and soybeans.

Wheat, maize and sunflower oil are core foodstuffs in the African continent will all a need in Zimbabwe.

Also, rising energy costs will affect agriculture. Several African countries have high dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, making this war a matter of concern to African leaders. Jointly, the two countries constitute almost 30 percent of global wheat exports. Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 saw wheat prices rising by 30% with a lot of shortages, manifested by long quepues experienced in Africa.

Importantly, during the 2020-2021 agricultural season, Africa represented 36% of Ukraine’s total wheat exports and was by far the largest regional destination. Kenya, which imports most of its wheat from both Ukraine and Russia, has seen rising food prices following the invasion of Ukrain generating discontent on social media. In East Africa, importers of wheat from the Black Sea region are already facing extremely volatile social and political circumstances that could be worsened by rising food prices following Russia’s blockade on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, which would prevent Ukraine from exporting its wheat.

Russian invasion would exacerbate already high levels of food insecurity in already impoverished African states that are facing food insufficiency due to climate change, civil wars and natural calamities.

In January 2022, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points up by 1% from December 2021 – its highest since April 2011.

In the days ahead of Russia’s move, there was a spike in the international prices of a number of commodities. These included maize (21%), wheat (35%), soybeans (20%), and sunflower oil (11%) compared to the corresponding period a year ago.

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