• Record Wheat Harvest: Zimbabwe achieves 639,942 metric tonnes in 2025, highest since 1966, exceeding national needs by 279,942
  • Surging Imports Despite Surplus: Wheat imports hit US$146.6 million in first nine months of 2025, projected to set new record
  • Data Discrepancies and Parallels: Harvest claims contrast with import dependency, mirroring maize sector's overstated surpluses leading to bans and reopenings

 

               

 

Harare- Zimbabwe has announced a record-breaking wheat harvest for the 2025 winter season, reporting a total output of 639,942 metric tonnes according to the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water, and Rural Development.

This marks the highest yield since commercial wheat farming began in 1966, spanning nearly 59 years of production history.

The figure, confirmed by the Agricultural and Rural Development Advisory Services and widely cited in state media such as The Herald, stems from 122,566 hectares planted and exceeds the national annual consumption of 360,000 metric tonnes by 279,942 metric tonnes, theoretically positioning the country for exports to regional markets.

The achievement reflects a 511 percent surge from 94,685 metric tonnes in 2019, fueled by expanded irrigation infrastructure, mechanization initiatives, and the Presidential Input Programme providing seeds, fertilizers, and credit to farmers.

This milestone solidifies Zimbabwe's status, alongside Ethiopia, as one of only two African nations attaining full wheat self-sufficiency, a rare feat on a continent where sub-Saharan Africa imports over 80 percent of its wheat needs.

Despite these claims, the reliability of the data comes under scrutiny when juxtaposed with surging import figures. Cumulative wheat import values from 2021 to FY2024 totaled US$446.2 million, comprising US$80.61 million in 2021, US$100.60 million in 2022, US$124.53 million in 2023, and US$140.46 million in FY2024.

In the first nine months of 2025 alone, imports reached US$146.6 million, with three months left in the year, signaling yet another record amid the declared surplus.

Zimbabwe’s government attributes the surge in wheat imports to a structural “wheat dynamics” issue: approximately 70% of the country’s wheat demand is met by locally produced soft wheat, while 30% requires imported hard, high-gluten wheat for blending in bread, biscuits, and baked goods. The Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe (GMAZ), which controls 98% of national flour production, insists that domestic wheat averaging 8–10% protein cannot meet the 12–14% gluten threshold needed for roughly one-third of milling processes.

This explanation, however, collapses under mathematical scrutiny. Annual wheat consumption is stable at 360,000 metric tonnes (MT). A strict 70/30 blend would therefore require just 108,000 MT of imported hard wheat, valued at approximately US$27 million at global prices of US$250/MT. Yet, in the first nine months of 2025 alone, imports reached US$146.6 million, projecting a full-year total of US$195 million, or roughly 780,000 MT.

This is 7.2 times the volume needed for blending, meaning imports are not supplementing local supply but effectively displacing it. Historical trends expose an even starker paradox.

Between 2015 and 2019, when local wheat production averaged only ~70,000 MT annually, Zimbabwe’s wheat imports (mostly hard/durum) ranged from US$51 million to US$106 million per year – perfectly normal for a country covering a large deficit. From 2021 to 2025, however, local output soared 511%, from 94,685 MT to a record 639,942 MT, yet import values rose 550%, from US$80.61 million to a projected US$195 million.

The import-to-consumption ratio ballooned from 33% in 2019 to an estimated 217% in 2025. In low-production years, imports logically filled gaps but today, with domestic output at 178% of national needs, they should be negligible. Instead, total wheat supply (local + imported) now exceeds 1.4 million MT, nearly four times consumption.

Even if all imports were hard wheat (as claimed), the excess volume suggests either massive waste, unreported exports, or a fundamental overstatement of domestic production. Critically, the blending narrative fails to explain why the import share of total supply has remained stagnant at 55% despite a sixfold increase in local soft wheat. If Zimbabwe truly produces 70% of its needs domestically, higher harvests should reduce hard wheat import dependency, not accelerate it. 

The government cites quality gaps, but the scale of inflows, equivalent to 2.2 times annual consumption cannot be justified by gluten supplementation alone.

Parallels with maize are telling. The 2024/25 season’s “2.29 million MT surplus” forecast shrank to 1.82 million MT in post-harvest audits, triggering an import ban in August 2025 that was lifted just two months later amid shortages. Similar patterns in wheat, initial surplus declarations followed by border reopenings and private inflows (220,092 MT from South Africa in early 2025), point to systemic over-optimism in pre-season projections, often used to incentivize planting under the Presidential Input Programme.

 Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025 waives duties on these imports, and the state released 6,518 metric tonnes from reserves to millers, framing the inflows as supplementary rather than substitutive. Private sector grain imports, including 220,092 metric tonnes of wheat valued at US$52.6 million mainly from South Africa through early 2025, further reflect this dependency.

The ban lifted in October via Statutory Instrument 87, unleashing imports: 907,318 tonnes from South Africa (May 2024 to January 2025), capturing 57 percent of that nation's maize exports, plus 1.13 million tonnes in private maize inflows within 1.35 million tonnes of total grains by February 2025, alongside permits for 1.8 million tonnes and mid-year arrivals of 567,160 metric tonnes, including 65,090 tonnes from South Africa during the ban.

ZIMSTAT's methodologies underpin these figures, yet U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates lag 40 to 50 percent behind, attributing gaps to pre-season hype aimed at spurring planting, with audits later validating volumes.

Last year, the 2024 bumper harvest of 562,091 metric tonnes prompted an initial import halt, yet the state grappled with wheat shortages, including a 20,000 tonne deficit in milling by-products for stock feed, forcing border reopenings in March and continued private inflows that depressed local prices below promised levels and sidelined domestic millers.

Agriculture, fueling 11 to 14 percent of GDP and 70 percent of jobs, remains hamstrung by irrigation on just 10 percent of arable land and El Niño droughts hitting every four years versus every ten pre-1980.

Practically, a bumper harvest should curtail, not coexist with imports.  Satellite oversight, third-party audits, and targeted upgrades in high-gluten seeds and irrigation are imperative to bridge these chasms and validate progress.

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