Tharisa delivered strong year-on-year PGM production growth in Q1 FY2026 despite a transitional dip, supported by a robust balance sheet

The Karo Platinum Project has regained strong momentum with the award of a major mining contract to EPSA, setting the stage for first ore in mid-2027

Tharisa is well-placed to capitalise on the third consecutive year of PGM market deficits, bullish analyst forecasts (WPIC projecting ongoing deficits through 2029), and its unique dual-commodity model

Harare- Tharisa plc, a dual-commodity mining company listed on the London Stock Exchange and Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with operations spanning South Africa (Tharisa Mine in the Bushveld Complex) and Zimbabwe (Karo Platinum Project on the Great Dyke), has painted a shiny outlook betting on renewed platinum group metals (PGMs) prices that reached a peak of approximately US$2,478.50/oz by the end of December 2025 and into early January 2026.

Platinum prices retreated slightly since mid-January 2026 due to some profit-taking and market stabilisation after the sharp rally, with prices trading around US$2,378–2,384/oz as of mid-January. However, recoveries were seen starting in early January, gaining from around US$2,250–2,300/oz levels in early January to the current firm range, supported by ongoing supply deficits and robust industrial demand.

During the platinum lapse (particularly in 2023–2024 when prices were significantly lower), many companies shelved various expansion projects like those at Impala Platinum (halting expansions at Mimosa and Marula mines), Sibanye-Stillwater (production cuts and deferred capex), and broader industry-wide reductions in South Africa due to weak PGM basket prices and economic uncertainty.

Tharisa itself postponed its Karo mining project initially set to operate in mid-2024 but later delayed to mid-2027 with improved prices providing a powerful tailwind.

With the renewed price strength, the company's Q1 FY2026 (ended 31 December 2025) saw a robust performance in terms of both financial position and production compared to the same period prior year.

Tharisa delivered a resilient performance producing 38.8 thousand ounces (koz) of platinum group metals (PGMs, 6E basis) and 349.4 thousand tonnes (kt) of chrome concentrates at its flagship Tharisa Mine in South Africa’s Bushveld Complex.

While output showed a sequential decline from Q4 FY2025 (41.3 koz PGMs and 407.2 kt chrome) due to lower reef mined volumes (1,239.0 kt vs 1,486.7 kt), seasonal factors, and planned maintenance, the results marked a meaningful year-on-year improvement in PGM production compared to Q1 FY2025’s 29.9 koz, a clear sign of operational progress amid the ongoing transition from open-pit to underground mining.

PGM production was supported by a rougher feed grade of 1.41 g/t (slightly down from 1.42 g/t in Q4 FY2025), with recovery at 78.8% (down from 80.7%). The modest dip in recovery reflects ore variability during the transition phase, reduced milling throughput (1,361.5 kt vs 1,429.6 kt), and ongoing process optimisation.

Management views this as temporary, with enhanced flotation circuits, real-time grade control, and the introduction of more consistent underground ore from the Apollo portal (first delivery expected Q2 FY2026) expected to restore and potentially exceed historical recovery levels of 80% (FY2025) and 80–81% (FY2024).

Chrome production totalled 349.4 kt at a grade of 14.9% Cr₂O₃ and 70.3% recovery (compared to 15.7% and 74.0% in Q4 FY2025), reflecting the impact of lower feed volumes but continuing to provide valuable revenue diversification and cost mitigation.

Financially, Tharisa closed the quarter with group cash of US$122.2 million down from US$173 million at 30 September 2025 and debt of US$75.2 million, resulting in a healthy net cash position of US$47 million. This strong liquidity supports ongoing capital commitments, including the underground transition at Tharisa Mine and advancements at the Karo Platinum Project.

Tharisa’s Q1 FY2026 performance builds on a mixed but improving FY2025 (ended 30 September 2025), which delivered 138.3 koz PGMs (down 4.7% from 145.1 koz in FY2024) and 1.56 Mt chrome (down 8.2% from 1.70 Mt), with challenges from lower grades, power constraints, and softer commodity prices earlier in the year.

However, the group staged a strong rebound in Q4 FY2025, producing 41.3 koz PGMs (up 19.7% quarter-on-quarter), supported by an 18.6% rise in average PGM prices to US$1,615/oz (with Q4 reaching US$1,953/oz, up 24.1%). The company ended FY2025 with a net cash position of US$68.6 million.

This historical resilience reflects Tharisa’s ability to adapt to market cycles while investing in long-term growth through its dual-commodity model and strategic expansion.

Significant momentum continues at the Karo Platinum Project, a tier-one greenfield open-pit development on the Great Dyke where Tharisa holds a controlling interest. In early 2026, Tharisa awarded a major mining services contract to Spanish firm EPSA to support the US$499 million phase-one development.

Key milestones include assembly of mining equipment scheduled for January–February 2026, waste stripping to commence in Q1 2026, 25% completion of the 132kV overhead transmission line (28 of 130 poles installed), targeting full completion by February 2026, Chirundazi Dam 27% complete (expected June 2026), and financial close targeted for 2026, with first ore/milling anticipated in mid-2027.

These developments build on the project’s FY2025 stabilisation, when Karo Mining Holdings Plc (VFEX-listed) narrowed its consolidated loss by 13% to US$2.17 million, driven by higher PGM basket prices (~US$1,882/oz), ball mill installation, dam expansion, and a perfect safety record.

Once fully operational, Karo is expected to produce 220,000–226,000 oz PGMs annually, significantly enhancing Tharisa’s group-wide output and extending mine life.

The platinum rally has provided a powerful tailwind. PGM markets remain in deficit for the third consecutive year (~692,000 oz platinum deficit in 2025), driven by persistent supply constraints in South Africa and robust industrial, automotive, and emerging hydrogen demand.

Prices have surged in late 2025 and remain firm into early 2026, supported by EU 2035 ICE vehicle ban complexities, global trade uncertainties, investor hedging, and growing use in fuel cells and electrolyzers.

Analyst forecasts remain optimistic. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projects average annual platinum deficits of ~689 koz from 2026–2029 (~9% of demand). Bullish scenarios see platinum reaching US$2,170–$2,340/oz in 2026, driven by supply inelasticity, ~10% recycling growth, and rotation from gold.

Tharisa benefits from its diversified PGM basket (platinum, palladium, rhodium) and low-cost chrome co-production, which provides a natural hedge and superior margin resilience compared to pure-play PGM producers.

Analyst consensus is strongly positive: Berenberg and Peel Hunt maintain “Buy” ratings, with average price targets of GBX 167.50–200.00, implying significant upside potential.

Tharisa has reaffirmed FY2026 production guidance of 145–165 koz PGMs and 1.50–1.65 Mt chrome concentrates. With underground mining ramp-up commencing in Q2 FY2026, accelerating progress at Karo, sustained high PGM prices, and a robust balance sheet, Tharisa is strongly positioned to capitalise on the current deficit-driven market, deliver margin expansion, and create substantial long-term shareholder value in the precious metals sector.

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