- Zimbabwe harvested 261,868 tonnes of sorghum during the 2025/26 season, with Matabeleland South leading production at 44,310 tonnes, according to the 16th Post-Cabinet Press Briefing
- Pearl millet production declined by 21.3% and finger millet contracted by 47.1%, with Cabinet reporting a 38.5% fall in total traditional-grain production to 390,272 tonnes
- The declines raise questions about seed availability, cultivated acreage and productivity as Zimbabwe prepares for another potentially difficult rainfall season
Harare – Zimbabwe's agricultural recovery has exposed a weakness in its climate adaptation strategy, with finger millet production plunging 47.1% and pearl millet declining 21.3% during the 2025/26 season, despite improved rainfall conditions across much of the country.
According to the 16th Post-Cabinet Press Briefing of 2026, which presented findings from the Second Round Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment Report, Zimbabwe harvested 261,868 metric tonnes of sorghum across eight provinces, with Matabeleland South accounting for 44,310 tonnes, the highest provincial contribution.
Cabinet reported total traditional-grain production of 390,272 tonnes, representing a 38.5% year-on-year decline. The different performances of sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet raise questions about the agricultural conditions influencing the country's drought-tolerant crops.
The concern is particularly significant because Zimbabwe has identified crop diversification as an important response to increasingly unreliable rainfall. Sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet are suited to particular conditions in the semi-arid regions of Matabeleland, Masvingo and the Midlands, where conventional maize production is exposed to substantial rainfall risk.
The contractions therefore require closer examination of the production system itself, including the availability of improved seed, changes in cultivated area and the productivity of existing farmland.
Millet declines expose weaknesses beyond rainfall. The 2025/26 agricultural season benefited from improved rainfall across much of Zimbabwe, creating more favourable conditions for crop production following the severe drought of 2023/24.
However, the recovery was uneven across traditional grains.. Pearl millet, commonly known as mhunga, recorded a 21.3% production decline, while finger millet, or rapoko, fell by 47.1%. These reductions raise the possibility that factors beyond rainfall are constraining the performance of crops important to drought adaptation.
Agricultural production is determined by both the area planted and the yield achieved per hectare. A contraction can result from farmers allocating less land to a crop, declining productivity or a combination of the two.
The Cabinet figures establish the scale of the decline but do not explain its causes. If cultivated acreage fell, the underlying factors could include seed availability, farmer preferences and the distribution of agricultural inputs. If acreage remained relatively stable while production declined, attention would shift towards yields, seed quality, soil conditions, pest pressure and crop management.
Distinguishing between these explanations is essential because the appropriate intervention depends on the source of the production loss.
Zimbabwe's Presidential Input Scheme and Pfumvudza/Intwasa programmes provide established mechanisms for supporting smallholder production. Their effectiveness in drought-prone regions depends partly on whether the crop varieties distributed are suited to local conditions.
The relevant assessment would establish how much pearl millet and finger millet seed reached farmers in the principal production districts, the hectares cultivated and the yields achieved.
Without these measures, the country risks treating a decline in production as a weather problem when its causes may lie elsewhere in the farming system.
Traditional grains perform an important role in agricultural risk management because different crops respond differently to moisture stress.
Sorghum can produce under rainfall conditions that substantially constrain conventional maize varieties. Pearl millet is particularly suited to hot, relatively dry environments and remains an important crop in Zimbabwe's semi-arid farming areas.
Finger millet has a different agricultural and nutritional role. Although its drought tolerance varies according to conditions and variety, it contributes to dietary diversity and provides a grain that can be stored for extended periods when properly handled.
The 47.1% production decline therefore affects more than the quantity of a single crop harvested nationally. It reduces the contribution of finger millet to a diversified agricultural system in which farmers can spread production risks across several crops.
Matabeleland South's 44,310-tonne sorghum harvest demonstrates the continuing importance of drought-tolerant production in the country's drier regions.
However, stronger sorghum production does not resolve the question of declining millet cultivation. The crops have different agronomic characteristics, household uses and growing requirements.
Maintaining several viable traditional grains gives farming communities more options when rainfall patterns change. A farming system increasingly concentrated in fewer crops may become more exposed to the particular conditions affecting those crops.
Zimbabwe's climate adaptation strategy must therefore examine the performance of individual traditional grains, rather than treat small-grain production as a single category.
The production declines come as Zimbabwe faces uncertainty over rainfall conditions during the 2026/27 agricultural season. In a preliminary assessment issued in April and publicised in May 2026, the Meteorological Services Department reported an 88% to 94% probability of El Niño developing during the coming rainfall season.
The department also noted the historical association between El Niño and below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe, while cautioning that the early forecast remained subject to uncertainty.
The warning did not establish that Zimbabwe would experience another severe drought. Nevertheless, it gave agricultural authorities a reason to examine the country's preparedness before the next planting season.
The World Bank's 2025 Zimbabwe Country Climate and Development Report documented an increase in historical drought frequency from approximately one in ten growing seasons between 1902 and 1979 to around one in four between 1980 and 2011.
This change increases the importance of agricultural systems capable of maintaining production through variable rainfall conditions.
For Zimbabwe, the immediate concern is whether crops already identified as suitable for drought-prone regions are receiving sufficient production support to remain viable.
A substantial contraction in finger millet during a relatively favourable rainfall year makes that assessment especially important.
Seed systems and yields become the next policy test. The production figures identify two areas requiring closer attention before the next planting season. The first is the availability of improved traditional-grain seed. Farmers in low-rainfall areas require varieties suited to their soils, growing periods and expected moisture conditions. The availability of certified seed, effective multiplication systems and timely distribution can influence both the area planted and the productivity of the crop.
Zimbabwe's agricultural research institutions and extension services have an important role in developing and distributing suitable varieties. However, assessing the effectiveness of these systems requires information on seed quantities produced, distribution coverage and adoption rates among farmers.
The second area is productivity. Millet yields depend on planting methods, soil fertility, weed management, pests and the quality of available seed. Improvements in these areas could support production from existing farmland without requiring equivalent increases in cultivated area.
The distinction between acreage and yield is particularly important for finger millet. A 47.1% contraction cannot be adequately addressed until the contribution of each factor has been established.
A district-level assessment comparing cultivated hectares, yields and input distribution with previous seasons would provide the basis for targeted intervention.
Such an assessment could identify whether production support needs to focus on restoring cultivated area, improving crop performance or strengthening access to agricultural services.
The economic value of these measures lies in protecting productive capacity in regions where rainfall limits the range of viable agricultural alternatives.
Zimbabwe's next harvest will test its agricultural resilience. The improvement in national agricultural production during 2025/26 provides an opportunity to examine the performance of Zimbabwe's traditional-grain system before another adverse rainfall season.
Cabinet's figures show that the recovery did not extend uniformly across drought-tolerant crops. Sorghum maintained substantial production, while pearl millet and finger millet suffered significant contractions.
The next step is establishing whether those declines resulted from reduced planting, weaker productivity or other constraints affecting smallholder farming.
Monitoring acreage, seed distribution and yields by district would allow agricultural authorities to identify the causes and measure whether subsequent interventions restore production.
The stakes extend beyond the next harvest. Maintaining viable traditional grains is part of protecting Zimbabwe's capacity to produce food under increasingly variable rainfall conditions.
A favourable agricultural season should also provide an opportunity to strengthen the country's defences against future droughts.
The 47.1% collapse in finger millet and 21.3% decline in pearl millet have exposed an unresolved weakness in that preparation. Whether Zimbabwe can reverse those contractions before another severe rainfall shock will be an important measure of its agricultural resilience.
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