• Zimbabwe Power Import Bill Reaches US$84 Million In The First Half, On Track For US$169 Million In 2026
• Half year electricity imports reached US$84.35 million, on track for about US$169 million in 2026
  
• The six month bill equals 72% of the entire 2025 import cost
  
• Domestic generation and captive company solar plants expand, the import gap persists on rising demand

Harare - Zimbabwe has spent US$84.35 million on electricity imports in the first half of 2026, a pace that carries the full year bill to about US$169 million, up 44% on the US$117 million recorded across all of 2025. The six month figure already equals 72% of the entire 2025 import cost, and it arrives as domestic generation climbs and private companies build their own power. The import bill is rising because demand growth, low water at Kariba and the ageing Hwange coal fleet outrun the new capacity coming online.

The import trajectory reversed a year of relief. According to ZIMSTAT figures, the bill fell to US$117 million in 2025 from US$207.7 million in 2024 and US$207.8 million in 2022, the two peak years. The first half of 2026 broke that decline. Imports reached US$35.08 million in the first quarter and US$49.27 million in the second, a 40 per cent quarter on quarter rise, taking the half year to US$84.35 million. A single month, May 2026, cost US$20.12 million, the heaviest monthly import bill since 2024.

At the first half pace the 2026 bill lands near US$169 million. The second half carries upside to that figure. Imports peak in the dry season from August to December, when Kariba inflows are lowest and the tobacco and winter heating load is highest, and the October 2022 record of US$37.44 million fell inside that window. The 2024 second half ran 30% above its first half, and a comparable dry season uplift would carry 2026 toward US$190 million to US$200 million, back within reach of the peak years.

Cumulatively, Zimbabwe has spent US$931 million importing electricity since January 2021, closing on the US$1 billion mark. About half of the imported power comes from South Africa's Eskom, with 19% from Mozambique's Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa and 18% from Electricidade de Moçambique, leaving the balance to the Southern African Power Pool.

Domestic supply has improved in absolute terms. Average daily generation rose 76.8% in 2025 to about 1,537 megawatts from 866 megawatts in 2024 on Treasury figures, and daily output now runs between 1,400 and 1,650 megawatts, moving above 1,600 megawatts on the strongest days. Current demand sits close to 2,000 megawatts against average domestic production near 1,500 megawatts, with Hwange contributing slightly above 1,000 megawatts, Kariba around 460 megawatts and independent producers just above 50 megawatts during stronger operating periods. That leaves approximately 500 megawatts between underlying domestic supply and prevailing demand before allowance for reserve capacity and plant maintenance.

Independent industry reporting places dependable capacity between 1,200 and 1,600 megawatts against peak demand of about 2,000 megawatts. Installed capacity is considerably higher at around 2,962 megawatts, split coal 1,680 megawatts, large hydro 1,050 megawatts, and small hydro, bagasse and solar producers 232 megawatts, exposing the gap between nameplate capacity and the electricity that can reliably be dispatched to customers. That distinction carries directly into the tariff cut Government is now considering, since a lower tariff lifts consumption against dependable capacity that has not moved, widening the deficit the import bill covers.

The shortfall is met by imports of around 200 megawatts when the region carries surplus, and by load shedding for the remainder. Two constraints shape the domestic mix. Kariba, which used to supply close to 45% of annual output, is held down by Zambezi River Authority water rationing after subdued inflows. The ageing Hwange Units 1 to 6, with 920 megawatts of nameplate capacity, run intermittently, and the 600 megawatt supercritical Units 7 and 8, built by Sinohydro for US$1.5 billion, are the addition that now carries Hwange output above the gigawatt mark.

The government answer is a pipeline of coal and solar capacity, most of it privately funded. On figures presented by ZETDC in May 2026, private led construction in progress totals 635 megawatts, with a further 730 megawatts concluding financial close, for 1,365 megawatts of new capacity targeted by December 2026. Treasury and the energy ministry frame the effort through a US$9 billion energy compact and a US$500 million Mutapa Investment Fund pipeline, with a stated target of ending imports by December 2027.

The projects nearing the grid carry specific dates. The Zhongjin Heli captive coal plant in Hwange commissioned its first 100 megawatt phase and is 45% through a second 135 megawatt phase targeted for September 2026. The Mapanzure solar project, 50 megawatts under a China and Zimbabwe arrangement, reached 70% for a June 2026 commissioning. The Sunny Jinlong 90 megawatt thermal plant near Norton stands at 35%, its first 60 megawatts at 70%. The 720 megawatt Titan coal plant at Hwange is building in phases behind these.

The most durable change is happening on company balance sheets. Firms that depend on continuous power for output have stopped waiting for the grid and built their own generation. Zimplats has commissioned 35 megawatts of an 80 megawatt solar plant, with the remaining 45 megawatts under construction. Caledonia Mining's Blanket Mine in Gwanda runs a 12.2 megawatt solar plant that covers about a quarter of the mine's daily demand. Dinson Iron and Steel at Manhize has installed 50 megawatts of internal generation. PPC Zimbabwe is spending US$40 million on 30 megawatts of solar across its Colleen Bawn and Bulawayo cement works. Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe is building 70 megawatts at Arcadia for its lithium sulphate plant, Turk Mine runs 4.4 megawatts in Bubi, and Padenga Holdings commissioned the first 5.4 megawatts of the Eureka gold mine solar plant in July 2026.

Mining accounts for more than 80% of new electricity demand, tariffs pushed a 1,000 kilowatt hour monthly bill above US$240 in 2024, and blackouts have reached 20 hours in the worst periods. Captive solar removes that exposure for the firm and protects the export earnings that depend on continuous processing. The move now feeds the grid as well, with 118 megawatts of net metering integrated into the national system as companies sell surplus back.

Why imports rise as generation rises

The paradox of a rising import bill against rising generation resolves in the demand line. Domestic output grew, and so did consumption, led by mining expansions and the industrial load the new capacity is meant to serve. Kariba's water constraint removed a block of cheap hydro at the same time, and the ageing Hwange units gave back part of the gains through breakdowns. The new coal and solar capacity that has reached the grid, Hwange 7 and 8 aside, remains too small to cover the growth. The import bill is the residual, the volume the utility buys to hold the system together as the pipeline is built.

Captive generation changes where the shortfall lands without removing it from the national account. Each mine or factory that self generates cuts its own draw on the grid and its own reliance on imported power, and the strongest firms are moving toward energy independence. The national import bill keeps climbing until enough of the 1,365 megawatt pipeline is commissioned to close the roughly 500 megawatt gap. That crossover, on the government timeline, falls at the end of 2027.

The import volume carries a financing tail. In September 2025 Treasury guaranteed a US$210 million Afreximbank facility for ZETDC to fund power imports and related procurement, of which US$91 million was drawn by October, and ZESA has carried arrears of about US$100 million to regional suppliers. Every megawatt hour imported converts into a hard currency obligation, a supplier arrear or a sovereign guarantee. That is the same balance sheet pressure the utility is trying to escape by building domestic capacity, and it links the electricity deficit directly to the arrears and guarantee exposure Treasury is working to reduce.

What to watch through the second half

The dry season import path from August to December is the first marker, the window that has historically produced the heaviest monthly bills and that will decide whether 2026 lands near US$169 million or closer to US$200 million. The second is commissioning against the calendar, the Mapanzure 50 megawatt solar plant, the Zhongjin Heli 135 megawatt phase due in September, and progress on Sunny Jinlong, each of which subtracts directly from the import requirement.

The third is Kariba, where the Zambezi River Authority water allocation sets the hydro ceiling for the rest of the year. The fourth is the pace of captive commissioning across mining and industry, the clearest near term source of relief, and the volume of net metered surplus returning to the grid. The fifth is ZETDC import financing, where further drawdowns on the Afreximbank facility or new arrears would carry the electricity deficit onto the sovereign balance sheet.

The direction to watch is the gap between commissioned domestic capacity and demand growth. A 2026 import bill near US$169 million against generation additions that stay on schedule would keep the end of 2027 exit within reach. A bill closer to the peak years, with the pipeline slipping as the 2025 deadlines did, would hold Zimbabwe on the regional market and on imported power for longer, and keep the pressure on the fiscus and on the companies now generating for themselves.

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