- The IMF projects global crude oil prices to rise by 41% in 2026, fertiliser prices by 10% and food prices by 5%, increasing the cost of agricultural production and distribution
- El Niño-related rainfall risks could weaken the 2026/27 agricultural season across parts of Southern Africa, where rain-fed farming remains an important source of food and household income
- Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and South Africa face differing levels of exposure, with existing food shortages and higher production costs increasing the consequences of a poor harvest
Harare – Southern Africa faces increasing food-security risks as higher international fuel and fertiliser prices raise agricultural production costs ahead of the 2026/27 farming season, when El Niño-related rainfall uncertainty threatens crop yields across Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and parts of South Africa.
The International Monetary Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects global crude oil prices to increase by 41% this year, alongside a 10% rise in fertiliser prices and a 5% increase in food prices. The projections come as the prolonged Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets and international shipping, increasing the cost of essential agricultural inputs for countries dependent on imported petroleum and fertiliser.
The price pressures coincide with an unfavourable seasonal outlook for parts of Southern Africa. Forecasts from the Southern African Development Community identify heightened risks of below-normal rainfall across several agricultural regions during the 2026/27 season. For economies where millions of households depend on rain-fed farming, the combination raises the possibility of farmers spending more on production while harvesting less than expected.
The immediate concern is the effect of higher input costs on decisions made before crops are planted. Farmers must secure fertiliser, fuel, seed and financing before the next harvest generates income. Where those inputs become more expensive, producers with limited working capital may reduce the area cultivated, apply less fertiliser or delay planting. If rainfall subsequently underperforms, the resulting production losses could deepen food shortages and increase reliance on commercially purchased or imported grain.
The IMF's commodity projections establish a more expensive operating environment for Southern Africa's agricultural sector. Crude oil prices are expected to rise substantially in 2026 as disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes constrain global supply. Fertiliser costs are also projected to increase, adding pressure to farmers already facing uncertainty over rainfall and the profitability of the approaching season.
Diesel is used in land preparation, mechanised planting, irrigation, harvesting and agricultural transportation. Fertiliser supports crop development and productivity, particularly in commercial maize production and farming operations where soil nutrient deficiencies require regular application. Higher prices for these inputs increase the amount of working capital required to produce a hectare of crops, potentially reducing the scale of planting where farmers cannot secure additional financing.
The financial pressure becomes more consequential when viewed alongside rainfall uncertainty. A farmer facing a higher fertiliser bill must decide whether to maintain the recommended application rate, reduce the quantity purchased or cultivate fewer hectares. Each decision changes potential output, while inadequate rainfall can further reduce the effectiveness of the inputs already applied. The resulting risk extends beyond a higher production bill to the possibility that farmers reduce investment precisely when maintaining yields requires stronger agronomic management.
The IMF's projected 10% rise in fertiliser prices provides an indication of the additional costs involved, although domestic prices depend on exchange rates, procurement contracts, transport expenses and Government support. A farmer previously spending US$1,000 on fertiliser would face a US$100 increase if the full projected international price rise were passed through. Across larger agricultural operations, the additional expenditure could become substantial, particularly when accompanied by higher diesel and financing costs.
The broader consequence is a potential reduction in agricultural productivity. Where input expenditure increases faster than expected farm revenues, producers may scale back operations or shift towards crops requiring less capital. Such adjustments can reduce the supply of staple commodities, particularly maize, which remains central to household food consumption across Southern Africa.
Southern Africa's dependence on seasonal rainfall makes the timing of the energy and fertiliser shock particularly important. The region's agricultural calendar requires farmers to commit substantial resources before the distribution and adequacy of rainfall can be established. Forecasts indicating an increased likelihood of below-normal precipitation therefore introduce uncertainty into production decisions already affected by higher costs.
El Niño does not produce identical weather conditions across every country or agricultural district. Its consequences depend on the timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall, together with soil moisture, water availability and the stage of crop development. Nevertheless, an extended dry period during germination, flowering or grain formation can reduce yields, particularly for rain-fed maize production.
Higher production costs can limit farmers' ability to respond. Irrigation offers protection against inadequate rainfall where water infrastructure is available, but pumping requires electricity or fuel. More expensive diesel can increase the cost of supplementary irrigation, while farmers without access to irrigation infrastructure remain dependent on rainfall. Consequently, the capacity to withstand adverse weather becomes partly determined by access to affordable inputs, financing and productive infrastructure.
The interaction between rainfall and input affordability is particularly important because agricultural losses can extend across several economic activities. Lower crop production reduces farm incomes, weakens demand for agricultural labour and limits the supply of raw materials to food processors. The effects can subsequently reach transport companies, grain millers, wholesalers and households dependent on agricultural employment.
A poor harvest also changes the financial requirements of food security. Countries facing domestic production shortfalls may need to increase grain imports or release strategic reserves, while households with insufficient own-produced food become more dependent on market purchases. If international transport and food prices remain elevated, securing replacement supplies becomes more expensive at the same time that rural purchasing power is weakening.
Zimbabwe and Zambia face the risk of losing recent production gains
Zimbabwe enters the 2026/27 agricultural season following an improvement in domestic production and national food availability. However, access to food remains uneven, with deficit-producing districts continuing to face higher maize prices and greater dependence on supplies transported from surplus areas. FEWS NET has warned of Crisis-level food insecurity across parts of Matabeleland, Masvingo, Manicaland and the Midlands during the October 2026 to January 2027 period.
The approaching rainfall season creates a new test for these communities. Below-normal rainfall could reduce the output of rain-fed farmers, while higher fertiliser and diesel prices may constrain planting and crop management. Zimbabwe's exposure to international energy costs is material, with fuel imports reaching approximately US$251.6 million in August 2026, equivalent to 21.8% of total merchandise imports. Higher fuel expenditure can increase the cost of agricultural inputs, grain transportation and distribution to areas already facing supply deficits.
Zambia enters the season with a stronger national production position after harvesting approximately five million tonnes of maize in 2026. The large harvest improved food availability and provided an important buffer against future shortages. However, rainfall risks across parts of southern and western Zambia could affect the next planting season, particularly among households dependent on rain-fed agriculture and seasonal farm employment.
The implications extend to regional grain markets. Zambia's agricultural surplus provides potential supply to neighbouring countries, making its production performance important beyond its borders. A weaker subsequent harvest could reduce exportable volumes and increase competition for available grain, particularly if other Southern African countries experienced production deficits during the same season.
For Zimbabwe and Zambia, the critical question is whether farmers can maintain the productive investment needed to protect output under less favourable rainfall conditions. Their recent harvest improvements provide a buffer, but the durability of that protection depends on grain stocks, input affordability and the performance of the next agricultural cycle.
Malawi and Mozambique face greater risks from existing food shortages
Malawi enters the approaching agricultural season with more immediate food-security vulnerabilities. Parts of southern and central Malawi are expected to experience Crisis-level food insecurity between October 2026 and January 2027, following weak harvests, declining household food stocks and constrained purchasing power. Many households consequently face increasing dependence on market purchases before the next production cycle is completed.
The rise in fertiliser prices is particularly consequential for Malawi because maize productivity depends partly on access to agricultural inputs. Where farmers cannot afford sufficient fertiliser, yields may weaken even under otherwise favourable growing conditions. Rainfall uncertainty compounds this exposure by increasing the risk that expenditure on cultivation fails to generate the expected harvest.
Mozambique faces a similarly difficult outlook, with FEWS NET estimating that between 1.5 million and 1.99 million people could require food assistance during December 2026 and January 2027. Existing production deficits, high food prices and disruptions to livelihoods have already weakened household access to food in several areas. Conflict-related displacement in northern Mozambique creates additional challenges for agricultural production and market access.
Higher energy and transport costs can intensify these pressures by increasing the expense of moving grain from surplus-producing regions to communities experiencing shortages. Mozambique's extensive geography and distribution requirements make transport affordability important to food availability, particularly where local production cannot meet demand.
For Malawi and Mozambique, the most immediate danger is that another weak agricultural season could prolong existing food shortages. Households already purchasing food at elevated prices have limited capacity to absorb further increases, while expensive production inputs can constrain the recovery of domestic supply.
South Africa's production costs carry consequences for regional food markets
South Africa plays a central role in Southern Africa's agricultural economy through its commercial grain production, food-processing industry and distribution networks. Its production performance influences regional grain availability, while its transport and processing infrastructure supports the movement of agricultural commodities and food products across neighbouring markets.
Higher diesel and fertiliser prices increase expenditure for commercial producers, affecting the profitability of maize and other crop operations. Rainfall uncertainty introduces additional risk to planting decisions, particularly where producers must commit significant capital to machinery, inputs and labour before the season's outcome becomes clear.
South Africa's exposure differs across farming regions, and the seasonal outlook does not establish that the entire country will experience below-normal rainfall. Nevertheless, a substantial reduction in output from important grain-producing areas could affect domestic supply and export availability. The regional consequences would become more significant if neighbouring countries simultaneously required additional imports.
South Africa's Reserve Bank has identified elevated energy prices and El Niño-related uncertainty among the risks to inflation. Agricultural production costs can pass through to food-processing and distribution prices, potentially affecting consumers in neighbouring economies that import food products or production inputs through South African supply chains.
The country's role in regional trade makes the availability of affordable grain particularly important. Southern African countries can manage local harvest shortfalls more effectively when neighbouring producers maintain surpluses, but simultaneous weather-related production losses can reduce the volume available for cross-border trade.
The greatest food-security risk lies in weaker harvests and more expensive replacement supplies
The combined energy and rainfall shock creates a food-security problem extending beyond individual farm budgets. Higher input costs can reduce agricultural investment before planting, while unfavourable rainfall may lower the output produced from the remaining investment. Where harvests weaken, households and governments must obtain food through markets at prices influenced by transport, regional availability and international commodity costs.
This transmission is particularly severe for low-income rural households. A smallholder farmer may lose part of the expected harvest while also facing reduced demand for agricultural labour and higher market prices for food. The household consequently experiences pressure on both income and consumption, increasing vulnerability to food insecurity.
For governments, the resulting challenge involves protecting production during the growing season and maintaining access to food where shortages arise. Timely input financing, targeted agricultural support, strategic grain reserves and effective regional trade arrangements can reduce the impact of production deficits. However, the effectiveness of these measures depends on the availability of funding and their implementation before critical agricultural deadlines.
The IMF's October projections establish the rising cost of essential agricultural inputs, while Southern Africa's seasonal forecasts identify the climate risks facing the next harvest. The scale of the eventual production impact remains uncertain because rainfall outcomes, farmers' responses and Government interventions have yet to be fully observed.
For Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and South Africa, the most consequential developments over the coming months will be the area planted, fertiliser affordability, rainfall distribution and crop conditions during critical growth stages. These factors will determine how much food the region produces and the extent to which countries must rely on existing reserves or additional imports.
Southern Africa's 2026/27 agricultural season is therefore becoming a test of whether farmers can sustain productive investment under increasingly expensive and uncertain conditions. The region's food-security outlook will depend on the interaction between the cost of producing the next harvest and the rainfall available to support it.
If both pressures intensify, the economic consequences could extend from lower agricultural output to higher grain-import requirements, increased household expenditure and greater demand for food assistance. The immediate priority is preserving the productive capacity needed to limit those risks before the season's potential losses materialise.
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