• Cabinet reports completed studies, licensing and signed power purchase and connection agreements

  • GreenGrid’s initial development plan prioritises land-based solar near Kariba

  • Financing costs, grid capacity and hydropower scheduling will determine the project’s contribution to electricity supply

Harare - Zimbabwe’s Cabinet says GreenGrid Energy’s US$650 million, 600MW Kariba solar project is preparing for implementation after completing technical studies, licensing and commercial agreements. ZETDC will purchase the electricity generated under arrangements intended to increase daytime supply and preserve water for hydropower generation during other hours.

The project follows a December 2023 directive to facilitate private investment in solar generation at Kariba. Power purchase and transmission connection agreements were signed in 2025, according to Cabinet, with technical, regulatory and preparatory work finalised in July 2026. Those agreements provide a contractual route to electricity sales and grid access, allowing financiers to assess the revenue arrangements against construction expenditure and operating risks.

ZETDC’s role as sole buyer concentrates project receipts in one counterparty. Lenders will assess payment deadlines, currency provisions, guarantees and remedies for delayed settlement when determining the amount, price and maturity of debt they can provide. Delayed electricity payments would place pressure on the developer’s ability to cover maintenance, operating expenditure and scheduled loan repayments.

Financing costs will enter the electricity tariff alongside equipment expenditure, expected generation, operating costs and the return required by equity investors. Short repayment periods or expensive debt would increase the revenue required during the early operating years. The US$650 million estimate therefore needs an accompanying financial model before consumers can assess the price implications.

The construction scope also requires reconciliation. Cabinet describes a floating solar plant on Lake Kariba, and GreenGrid’s published project description identifies land-based installations near Kariba Town as the initial development. The developer says feasibility studies found that approach technically suitable for the early stages and describes floating solar as a possible subsequent addition.

The sequencing affects procurement, construction costs and environmental obligations. Floating installations require platforms, anchoring and electrical equipment designed for changing lake conditions. Land-based development requires suitable sites, access infrastructure and land-use approvals. A published phase schedule would establish the capacity assigned to each installation type and the expenditure needed to bring it into service.

Kariba’s existing hydropower infrastructure provides an opportunity to coordinate generation across the day. Solar electricity could meet part of daytime demand, allowing operators to reduce water releases through the turbines during those hours. The water retained could then support generation during morning and evening peaks, subject to allocations, turbine availability and the requirements of the wider electricity system.

GreenGrid describes this operating model in its project material. Engineering consultant SmartTec also lists work examining joint operation of the proposed solar plant and Kariba South, including dispatch strategies, grid performance and marginal electricity costs. The resulting operating plan would need to quantify the water retained and the additional hydropower available during periods when solar output declines.

The reservoir’s recent performance shows the variability confronting electricity planners. The Zambezi River Authority reported a lake level of 480.83 metres and usable storage of 38.04% on October 5, 2026. Usable storage stood at 14.30% on the same date in 2025, and the latest reporting period recorded declining lake levels. Rainfall and catchment inflows continue to determine the water available for generation.

Solar output would add electricity without requiring water to pass through Kariba’s turbines. Its contribution to supply outside daylight hours would depend on retained hydropower, other generation sources and any storage incorporated into the system. The Cabinet briefing identifies no battery component, making the proposed coordination of solar and hydro central to assessing evening reliability.

The 600MW figure describes proposed capacity. Annual electricity delivery will depend on sunlight, equipment performance, losses and the network’s ability to accept generation. Businesses planning around the project need an hourly output profile and expected annual energy production, together with the capacity and commissioning date of the first phase.

Transmission arrangements will determine how much of that output reaches users. Simultaneous solar and hydro generation requires adequate line capacity, voltage control and protection systems. Contractual provisions governing curtailment will establish who bears the financial cost when the plant can generate electricity and the network cannot accept it.

Zambia’s 100MW Chisamba project provides a regional financing reference. GreenCo reported financial close in May 2025 with US$71.5 million in commercial debt from Stanbic Bank Zambia, supported by a thirteen-year power purchase agreement. GreenCo contracted the electricity and arranged onward supply to First Quantum Minerals through a separate supply agreement, connecting the project’s revenue stream to commercial lending.

GreenGrid’s disclosures should establish the lender commitments, payment protections and risk allocation supporting its own ZETDC contract. The terms will determine how construction and operating risks are distributed among the developer, financiers and electricity buyer. They will also show whether additional security or public guarantees form part of the financing package.

Kariba has several separately identified solar initiatives. Afreximbank announced a US$4.4 million project-preparation agreement for Green Hybrid Power, and Swedfund reports support for environmental and social studies on a proposal owned by the Zambezi River Authority. Each initiative requires confirmation of its developer, site, capacity and financing before funding announcements can be attributed to GreenGrid’s project.

Electricity users would benefit through additional supply and reduced interruptions. Businesses that displace diesel generation could lower fuel and maintenance expenditure, with the saving determined by the grid tariff, outage frequency and backup generation avoided. More dependable supply could also reduce production stoppages and improve utilisation of equipment already installed in factories and mines.

The first commissioned phase will determine the project’s near-term contribution. Committed financing, contractor mobilisation, equipment delivery and grid acceptance dates would provide a basis for including that capacity in supply forecasts. Subsequent operating records should establish electricity delivered, curtailment, water releases and hydropower availability during peak demand, allowing the project’s effect on reliability and supply costs to be measured.

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