• Zimbabwe projects a current account surplus exceeding US$3 billion in 2026, compared with US$2.1 billion in 2025 and US$501.2 million in 2024
• Foreign currency receipts increased 47.8% to US$10.72 billion in the first half of 2026, while the current account surplus reached US$1.3 billion, more than five times the comparable 2025 figure
• Foreign reserves stood at US$1.7 billion at the end of July, covering 1.7 months of imports, as Zimbabwe prepares to introduce an electronic foreign currency trading platform

Harare – Zimbabwe is projecting a record current account surplus exceeding US$3 billion by December 2026, supported by a 47.8% surge in foreign currency inflows during the first half of the year, although the country's modest reserve cover highlights the gap between growing external earnings and its capacity to withstand external shocks.

Finance Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube disclosed the projection during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, linking the stronger external position to rising bank deposits, improved lending capacity and greater exchange-rate stability.

The forecast builds on an estimated US$1.3 billion current account surplus recorded between January and June 2026, compared with US$248 million during the corresponding period in 2025, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's August Monetary Policy Statement.

Zimbabwe recorded a US$2.1 billion surplus for the full year in 2025, up from US$501.2 million in 2024. Ncube's latest projection would therefore represent an increase of at least 43% over last year's outcome and nearly six times the 2024 balance. 

However, Zimbabwe's growing external earnings have yet to produce a fully adequate reserve buffer. Foreign currency reserves reached approximately US$1.96 billion by September 2026, up from US$1.7 billion in July and US$1.2 billion at the end of 2025, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's third-quarter monetary developments.

The increase has strengthened the backing of the ZiG, with reserve assets covering reserve money approximately 6.5 times. Import cover has also improved to roughly two months, although this remains below the three-to-six-month benchmark used by the central bank for longer-term reserve adequacy.

The figures demonstrate meaningful progress in reserve accumulation alongside stronger mineral export earnings. However, Zimbabwe's external position remains exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign currency receipts, underscoring the importance of building a larger buffer during periods of favourable export performance.

The divergence exposes an important feature of Zimbabwe's external recovery. The economy is generating considerably more foreign currency, but the accumulation of reserves remains relatively limited compared with the scale of external receipts.

Zimbabwe received US$10.72 billion in foreign currency during the first six months of 2026, compared with US$7.25 billion in the same period last year. Export proceeds accounted for 70.3% of receipts, while diaspora remittances contributed 14.4%.

The composition demonstrates the central role of commodity exports in the external recovery, supported by foreign currency transfers from Zimbabweans living abroad. Gold and platinum group metals benefited from higher international prices, improving the value of mineral exports and strengthening the country's terms of trade.

By August, gold export earnings had reached approximately US$4.06 billion,  approaching the US$4.61 billion generated during the whole of 2025. The performance reflects the combined contribution of production and international prices, although the elevated value of mineral exports also increases Zimbabwe's exposure to changes in global commodity markets.

Foreign currency payments rose alongside receipts, reaching US$7.3 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with approximately US$5 billion a year earlier. The difference between total receipts and payments amounted to approximately US$3.42 billion. However, this is not the current account surplus because the Reserve Bank's foreign currency receipts and payments statistics cover transactions classified differently from the balance of payments.

The estimated current account surplus was US$1.3 billion. The distinction is important for interpreting Zimbabwe's external performance. Strong gross foreign currency receipts demonstrate substantial external transactions, while the current account measures the balance of trade, services, income and transfers.

Zimbabwe's foreign currency reserves reached approximately US$1.96 billion by September 2026, increasing from US$1.7 billion in July and US$1.2 billion at the end of 2025, according to Reserve Bank figures. The latest position represents an increase of approximately 63% from December 2025, reflecting stronger reserve accumulation alongside improved foreign currency earnings.

Import cover has consequently risen to approximately two months, approaching the lower end of the Reserve Bank's longer-term reserve adequacy objective of three to six months. The improvement has also strengthened the backing of the Zimbabwe Gold currency, with reserve assets covering ZiG reserve money approximately 6.5 times.

However, the US$10.72 billion in foreign currency receipts recorded during the first half of 2026 should not be compared directly with the central bank's reserve stock. Exporters, financial institutions and households retain and use foreign currency for imports, debt servicing, investment and other transactions, while official reserves represent assets held by the monetary authorities.

The stronger reserve position provides Zimbabwe with additional capacity to absorb external shocks, although the country's dependence on mineral earnings leaves it exposed to commodity price movements.

Finance Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube said growing foreign currency receipts were increasing banking-sector liquidity, allowing some institutions to extend individual loans of up to US$100 million.

Reserve Bank data show that total banking deposits increased by 40.4% to ZiG158.29 billion in June 2026, compared with ZiG112.77 billion a year earlier. Foreign currency deposits accounted for 81.9% of the total deposit base, highlighting the continued dominance of the United States dollar within Zimbabwe's financial system.

Aggregate loans and advances rose by approximately 40.1% to ZiG94.61 billion, from ZiG67.51 billion in June 2025. Foreign currency loans represented 90.2% of total lending, while productive sectors accounted for 70.9% of credit.

These developments indicate stronger financial intermediation as larger deposits support an expansion in lending. However, the high proportion of foreign currency deposits and loans also demonstrates the structural challenge facing Zimbabwe's domestic currency.

The growing availability of credit is economically significant, particularly for businesses financing working capital and capital expenditure. Nevertheless, Ncube's reference to US$100 million facilities reflects the capacity of some banks to finance large transactions rather than broad access to affordable credit across the economy.

The sustainability of this expansion will depend on deposit stability, credit quality and the ability of borrowers to meet their obligations. Zimbabwe's improving external position has coincided with greater stability in the foreign exchange market.

The official exchange rate remained broadly between ZiG25 and ZiG27 per United States dollar during the first half of 2026, while the parallel market premium averaged approximately 15%.

As of 15 October 2026, the official interbank average stood at ZiG26.6094 per US dollar, reflecting continued stability in the formal market. The Reserve Bank also reduced its policy rate from 35% to 30%, supported by easing inflationary pressures.

Annual ZiG inflation stood at 3.7% in September, while annual United States dollar inflation was approximately 3.46%. The developments suggest improving monetary conditions, although the stability of the ZiG continues to depend on fiscal discipline, liquidity management and confidence in the domestic currency.

The Reserve Bank is preparing to introduce an electronic foreign currency trading platform during the fourth quarter of 2026, aimed at improving price discovery and transparency in the interbank market.

The platform could strengthen exchange rate formation by facilitating transactions between eligible market participants at observable prices. Its contribution will depend on sufficient trading volumes, reliable settlement and the availability of foreign currency through formal channels. A more efficient market could reduce reliance on administrative intervention and improve businesses' access to foreign exchange, particularly for imports and other external payments.

Government projects growth of 5% in 2026 before moderation to 3.5% in 2027. The slowdown reflects the difference between rising export earnings and broader economic expansion. Higher commodity prices can strengthen the current account without generating equivalent increases in manufacturing output, employment or household incomes. Renewed uncertainty over rainfall conditions also presents risks to agricultural production during the 2026/27 season.

The stronger external position therefore creates an opportunity to finance productive investment and reduce vulnerability to commodity and climate shocks. Ncube also expects a positive primary fiscal balance in 2026, signalling continued restraint in non-interest expenditure relative to Government revenue.

However, Zimbabwe's substantial public debt obligations continue to constrain fiscal flexibility. Government is pursuing bridge financing to clear arrears with international financial institutions, targeting progress by March 2027. Successful re-engagement could restore access to concessional funding for infrastructure and other development priorities.

Zimbabwe's projected current account surplus exceeding US$3 billion would extend the improvement from US$501.2 million in 2024 to US$2.1 billion in 2025, supported by strong mineral earnings and rising foreign currency receipts.

The recovery is increasingly reflected in domestic financial conditions. Foreign reserves have approached US$2 billion, banking deposits have expanded and exchange rate stability has improved.

However, reserves covering approximately two months of imports remain below the Reserve Bank's longer-term adequacy objective, while foreign currency deposits and loans continue to dominate the banking sector.

These conditions highlight the need to strengthen reserve accumulation, improve domestic currency confidence and direct additional credit towards productive investment.

Zimbabwe's external position has strengthened considerably, providing greater financial stability and lending capacity. Sustaining these gains will depend on building adequate reserve buffers, expanding productive investment and reducing the economy's exposure to commodity price and climate shocks.

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