- Zimbabwe is expecting 58% increase in maize output for 2022/2023 farming season
- The government has raised GDP projection from 4% to 6% on the back of the agricultural sector's optimistic performance
- Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee predicts that 3.8 million people are still at risk of hunger in Zimbabwe in 2022.
Harare-Zimbabwe's government is predicting an increase in economic growth based on the country's anticipated 58% rise in maize output in the 2022-2023 farming season. The production increase is expected to be 2,298,281 metric tonnes, which is lower than the 2,717,171 tonnes produced in the previous season, which was the highest harvest in years.
The agricultural sector's success has led to the government raising its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection from 4% to 6%. The government's decision comes despite the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) more pessimistic outlook on Zimbabwe's economy. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Zimbabwe's 2023 growth rate to be 2.5%, which was slightly lower than the 2.8% projected late last year.
The IMF report also lamented a lower-than-expected growth rate of 3% for Zimbabwe's economy in 2021. In contrast, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube previously forecast that the agriculture sector would recover by 4% after it shrank by 14% in 2021.
Notwithstanding, the Cabinet has announced that it would provide assistance to farmers in processing and marketing their produce, thereby improving their capabilities in selling and marketing their goods. Additionally, Cabinet disclosed that the total cereal production this year is expected to be 2,579,247 MT, which is higher than the national cereal requirement of 1,837,742 MT for human consumption and 450,000 MT for livestock.
Despite the positive outlook in Zimbabwe's food supply, the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee stated that 3.8 million people are still projected to be at risk of hunger in Zimbabwe in 2022. The Committee combines state and donor agencies and provides intelligence on the current state of Zimbabwe's food supply.
The increase in maize output has been partly attributed to the government's support of local farmers. However, the country's biggest maize miller, National Foods, recently announced that the six months to December had been mixed in terms of maize supply. National Foods reported that maize volumes declined by 6% compared to the previous year. The company attributes the lower demand in maize supply to the procurement of local maize, which accounted for the lower volumes in Q1 of the half year.
Despite this setback, volumes increased by 13% in the second quarter as locally available maize supplies declined and were further sourced from the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) and imports.
Overall, the rise in Zimbabwe's maize production hints at a positive outlook for the country's agricultural sector, leading to an increase in economic growth. Though, with the combined risks related to food insecurity and slow economic growth, the country still has a long way to go to ensure sustainable and stable economic development
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