• Clinker imports rose to US$48.24 million by August, exceeding the entire 2025 import bill
• Finished Portland cement imports declined 23.5%, revealing growing dependence on imported manufacturing inputs
• Dinson's US$15 million Manhize investment adds capacity as Zimbabwe confronts unreliable domestic clinker production

Harare- Zimbabwe's clinker imports surged 89.7% to US$48.24 million during the first eight months of 2026, exceeding the US$40.78 million spent throughout 2025, as the country prepares to commission another cement manufacturing facility. The increase exposes a structural weakness in Zimbabwe's industrialisation programme, where additional cement production capacity has not been accompanied by sufficient investment in the intermediate materials required to manufacture the finished product.

Dinson Iron and Steel Company's US$15 million cement plant at Manhize, scheduled for commissioning during the week beginning 16 November 2026, enters an industry where the principal constraint is increasingly the reliable domestic supply of clinker rather than the absence of cement manufacturing facilities.

According to merchandise trade data analysed by Equity Axis, Zimbabwe imported US$84.27 million worth of cement and related products under Harmonised System code 2523 between January and August 2026, compared with US$67.67 million during the corresponding period of 2025. The 24.5% increase was driven primarily by clinker, whose share of the import bill expanded from 37.6% to 57.2%. Expenditure on other Portland cement moved in the opposite direction, declining 23.5% from US$41.82 million to US$31.98 million. The divergence reveals a significant change in the composition of Zimbabwe's cement imports, with domestic manufacturing increasingly dependent on externally supplied clinker even as finished cement purchases decline.

The latest findings deepen an earlier Equity Axis investigation by Blessing Kanyemba, which examined rising cement imports and the disruption caused by inadequate local production. The broader cement import bill increased from US$59.08 million in 2023 to US$88.86 million in 2024 before reaching US$103.74 million in 2025. The detailed tariff classifications now establish that the increase cannot be explained through finished cement imports alone. Clinker expenditure increased by US$22.8 million during the first eight months of 2026, exceeding the US$16.6 million increase recorded across the entire cement category. The greater import requirement is therefore increasingly associated with supplying domestic cement manufacturing processes rather than purchasing finished products from regional producers.

The historical composition of imports supports this conclusion. Clinker accounted for approximately 25.7% of total cement category imports in 2021, compared with 57.2% during the first eight months of 2026. In July and August alone, clinker imports reached US$8.04 million and US$7.62 million respectively, against US$3.47 million and US$3.94 million during the corresponding months of 2025. The figures measure import expenditure rather than physical quantities, making it necessary to separate the effects of prices and volumes. Nevertheless, the sustained increase in the value and share of clinker purchases identifies an expanding dependence on imported intermediate inputs.

The scale of that dependence becomes clearer through international trade records. According to World Bank WITS data, Zimbabwe imported approximately 419,309 tonnes of clinker valued at US$40.78 million in 2025. Zambia supplied US$21.76 million, representing approximately 53% of the import bill, while South Africa accounted for US$17.90 million, or nearly 44%. The two countries therefore supplied roughly 97% of Zimbabwe's clinker imports by value, demonstrating the industry's exposure to production and logistics disruptions across a narrow regional supply base.

That concentration became apparent during the cement shortages experienced in late 2025. A two week interruption in clinker imports from Zambia, compounded by border clearance delays, coincided with a breakdown at PPC's Harare plant and scheduled maintenance at Sino Zimbabwe Cement in Kwekwe. Khayah Cement was also recovering from a prolonged period of kiln inactivity. The interruptions reduced market availability and pushed cement prices sharply higher, with industry reporting indicating increases from approximately US$12 to US$17 per 50 kilogramme bag between August and November 2025. Government subsequently relaxed import restrictions to restore supply, revealing how quickly production and logistics failures can translate into higher construction costs.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce also disclosed that newly established cement grinding facilities had suspended operations because of inadequate clinker availability. The experience illustrates the distinction between installed cement capacity and the ability to sustain production. A grinding facility can transform clinker into finished cement through additional processing, but it cannot operate independently of reliable clinker supply. Consequently, a country can expand the number of cement factories while remaining exposed to imported raw materials, particularly where investment in grinding and packaging advances faster than the construction or rehabilitation of clinker kilns.

Dinson's Manhize project introduces an alternative industrial model through its proposed integration with steel manufacturing. According to project director Wilfred Motsi, the 200,000 tonne annual capacity facility will create approximately 200 direct jobs and supply domestic and export markets, using steel slag generated from Dinson's existing operations alongside locally sourced limestone. The plant's location within the Manhize Special Economic Zone provides an opportunity to establish industrial linkages between steelmaking, mineral extraction and construction materials manufacturing, potentially improving the utilisation of locally available resources.

The technical significance lies in the proposed use of steelmaking byproducts. Suitable processed slag can replace part of the clinker requirement in certain cement formulations, reducing reliance on conventional inputs and potentially lowering emissions associated with clinker production. The extent of substitution depends on the characteristics of the slag, processing technology, cement specifications and applicable product standards. Dinson has not disclosed sufficient technical information to establish the proportion of slag that will be used, the clinker requirement per tonne of cement or the inclusion of a clinker kiln within the initial Manhize investment.

These details are essential to assessing the project's contribution to import substitution. A plant that primarily grinds imported clinker can increase domestic cement production and replace some finished cement imports while sustaining demand for imported intermediate materials. A facility capable of incorporating substantial quantities of locally processed slag could reduce that dependence, provided the cement meets required quality standards and remains competitive on price. Dinson's industrial integration provides an opportunity to improve domestic value addition, with the eventual economic benefit dependent on actual production processes rather than installed capacity alone.

The emerging cement investment pipeline also includes Shuntai Investments' US$120 million integrated plant in Chegutu, designed to produce approximately 800,000 tonnes of cement annually. The development incorporates limestone processing and supporting infrastructure, with plans for dedicated power generation. According to the company's September 2026 update, mechanical installation was scheduled for completion in October, followed by integrated commissioning activities through mid November. Earlier commissioning targets had been delayed by equipment procurement and shipping disruptions, making confirmation of operational readiness essential before the plant's production can be included in national supply estimates.

Unlike a standalone grinding operation, an integrated cement plant is designed to undertake more of the production process domestically. Chegutu therefore has the potential to address the upstream capacity constraint, subject to confirmation of the clinker line's operational output. Earlier reports identified production rates of between 1,500 and 1,800 tonnes per day for cement, not verified clinker production. Those figures cannot be used to calculate domestic clinker supply or quantify potential import replacement. The decisive measures will be actual kiln commissioning, clinker output, operating reliability and the proportion of domestically produced material used in finished cement.

At their announced capacities, the Manhize and Chegutu projects would contribute approximately one million tonnes of additional annual cement production capacity. This is substantial relative to Zimbabwe's estimated annual consumption of between 1.6 million and 2.5 million tonnes, representing approximately 40% to 62.5% of that demand range. The figures describe potential manufacturing capacity rather than immediate production or additional consumption. Their effect on the domestic market will depend on commissioning schedules, utilisation levels, construction demand and the performance of existing producers.

PPC Zimbabwe provides a useful commercial benchmark for evaluating the relationship between production capacity, clinker supply and profitability. According to PPC Limited's audited results for the financial year ended 31 March 2026, its Zimbabwean cement sales volumes increased 18.2%, while revenue grew 14.3% to R3.57 billion. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation increased to R961 million, with the EBITDA margin easing from 27.2% to 26.9%. PPC reported that operational improvements increased its own clinker production by 4%, although strong market demand required additional clinker imports to supplement domestic output.

The results demonstrate that import dependence is not confined to new grinding facilities. Even an established integrated producer with clinker manufacturing operations may need imported supplies when market demand exceeds available production. PPC's stronger sales and earnings indicate the commercial value of reliable supply, while its continued clinker purchases underline the constraints on domestic manufacturing integration. The company's improved second half EBITDA margin of 30.9% also illustrates the earnings benefits that can emerge from operational recovery and stronger production efficiency.

The introduction of new capacity could progressively change market conditions for existing manufacturers. Zimbabwe experienced shortages and rising prices in 2025, supported by strong construction demand and temporary production interruptions. Additional output from Manhize and Chegutu, alongside improved performance at PPC, Khayah and other established producers, could strengthen supply availability and increase competition. Manufacturers with reliable clinker access, efficient energy consumption and established distribution networks will be better positioned to sustain profitability as the market adjusts.

This introduces an additional consideration for industrial policy. The economic objective should extend beyond reducing imports of finished cement to increasing the proportion of domestic materials used throughout the production process. Local grinding and packaging create employment and manufacturing activity, although imported clinker continues transferring a substantial share of production expenditure outside Zimbabwe. Investment in reliable kilns, limestone processing, suitable alternative cementitious materials and energy infrastructure would strengthen the domestic value chain while reducing exposure to regional supply disruptions.

The environmental dimension reinforces the case for greater production efficiency. Clinker manufacturing requires high temperatures and releases carbon dioxide through fuel combustion and the chemical processing of limestone. Lowering clinker intensity through suitable supplementary materials can reduce emissions per tonne of cement, provided the resulting products meet performance and safety requirements. Dinson's proposed use of steel slag therefore presents an industrial opportunity extending beyond conventional cement production, although environmental benefits require verification through actual material composition and manufacturing data.

The available trade figures establish import values but do not provide the physical quantities required to determine changes in clinker consumption during 2026. International prices, exchange rate movements and product specifications may have contributed to the increase in expenditure. A complete assessment of import substitution will require comparable quantity data, domestic clinker production statistics and factory utilisation rates, alongside evidence of the operational contribution from new investments.

Equity Axis takes the view that Zimbabwe's cement industry is approaching a new phase in which production efficiency and domestic input integration will become more consequential than announcements of additional factory capacity. The US$48.24 million spent importing clinker during the first eight months of 2026 identifies a substantial upstream dependency that new investments must address. Manhize's integration with steel production provides an opportunity to substitute selected inputs, while Chegutu's integrated manufacturing model offers potential to expand domestic clinker availability once its production systems become operational.

The policy response should prioritise the reliability and productivity of clinker production, alongside energy costs, equipment maintenance and standards that support the commercially viable use of alternative cementitious materials. These interventions would strengthen existing manufacturers while improving the economic contribution of new entrants. The industry's progress can then be assessed through domestic clinker output, import quantities, factory utilisation and the stability of cement prices rather than installed capacity alone.

Dinson's planned commissioning represents another addition to Zimbabwe's manufacturing infrastructure, with the greater industrial opportunity lying in the proportion of value retained domestically. The latest trade figures demonstrate that the country is importing less finished Portland cement by value while spending considerably more on clinker. Sustained import substitution will require Zimbabwe to produce more of the inputs consumed by its cement factories, ensuring that expanding domestic manufacturing capacity translates into greater industrial independence, competitive construction costs and stronger local supply chains.

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