• Africa’s solar market reached a historic high in 2025, adding 4.5 gigawatts of new capacity in a 54% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by utility-scale projects and led by South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt
• Despite record growth, Africa’s energy transition remains fragmented, with public and development finance still dominating funding while rapidly expanding rooftop and distributed solar markets remain undercapitalised
• Zimbabwe reflects this imbalance clearly, as solar adoption has surged at the household and business level in response to power shortages, even as large-scale projects struggle with financing risk, currency volatility and weak off-take frameworks

Harare - Africa’s solar market new installations reached a historic high in 2025 added 4.5 gigawatts of new capacity, a  54% increase from 2024 and surpassing the earlier record set in 2023 marking its fastest pace of expansion on record according to the Global Solar Council (GSC).

This was driven by a surge in utility-scale projects, and could add more than six times last year’s annual capacity by 2029, according to a new industry report.

South Africa remained the dominant market, adding 1.6 gigawatts, while Nigeria and Egypt followed with 803 megawatts and 500 megawatts respectively.

These figures reflect the continued concentration of large-scale solar development in a handful of countries with relatively deeper capital markets and stronger grid infrastructure.

However, the more consequential signal lies in the forward outlook. By 2029, Africa could install more than 33 gigawatts of additional solar capacity, more than six times last year’s total, as both utility-scale and distributed markets expand across a broader set of economies.

This rapid expansion is occurring against the backdrop of a structurally fragmented energy transition. Africa is effectively pursuing two solar pathways at the same time.

One is driven by governments and development finance institutions, centred on grid-connected utility-scale projects designed to stabilise national power systems.

The other is led by private capital and household investment, manifesting in rooftop installations, commercial systems and mini-grids adopted by consumers seeking reliability rather than policy alignment. While these two transitions are complementary, they are not equally supported by existing financing frameworks.

Zimbabwe illustrates this dynamic particularly clearly. The country has not emerged as a leader in large utility-scale solar projects, yet it has experienced one of the most aggressive expansions of distributed solar in the region.

This growth has been driven less by climate ambition than by necessity. Chronic power shortages, persistent load-shedding by ZESA, ageing thermal generation, and reduced hydropower output at Kariba due to drought conditions have fundamentally altered how electricity is consumed.

 For businesses and households, solar has become a defensive investment, adopted to preserve production, protect income and reduce exposure to grid instability.

In response to these pressures, the Zimbabwean government has taken several policy steps aimed at accelerating solar adoption.

Import duties and value-added tax on solar panels, inverters and lithium batteries have been removed, significantly lowering the cost of entry for households and firms.

Regulatory thresholds have been adjusted to exempt smaller installations from lengthy licensing processes, while net metering regulations have been introduced to allow approved producers to feed excess electricity into the grid.

The country has also maintained an Independent Power Producer framework intended to attract private developers into generation.

While these measures have stimulated uptake, they have not resolved deeper structural constraints. Utility-scale solar projects in Zimbabwe continue to face delays tied to financing risk, currency volatility, and concerns over the bankability of power purchase agreements.

As a result, solar growth has remained overwhelmingly decentralised, funded by private balance sheets rather than long-term institutional capital.

The GSC report highlights that this imbalance is not unique to Zimbabwe. Across the continent, financing structures have struggled to keep pace with how solar markets are actually evolving.

Despite the rapid growth of rooftop and distributed systems, roughly 82% of Africa’s clean energy funding still originates from public budgets and development finance institutions.

This leaves private-sector solar markets undercapitalised and dependent on short-term or self-financed solutions, limiting scale and efficiency.

At the same time, the investment requirements remain substantial. Solar mini-grid companies operating across Africa estimate that as much as US$46 billion will be needed by 2030 to meet electrification targets in 29 countries participating in World Bank-supported programmes.

Of this amount, the majority is expected to come from debt and equity, with a smaller portion from grants and subsidies. Zimbabwe is part of this continental demand pool, yet it competes for capital with larger, more stable markets that are often viewed as lower risk.

What sets Zimbabwe apart is the role solar now plays in economic resilience rather than long-term energy transition planning. Solar installations are increasingly functioning as a form of infrastructure insurance, shielding firms from production disruptions, reducing reliance on diesel generators, and limiting exposure to imported fuel costs.

In an economy characterised by currency instability and constrained fiscal space, energy self-sufficiency has become a strategic priority at the firm and household level.

This reality aligns with the GSC’s assessment that solar and battery storage represent Africa’s most viable pathway to energy access, climate resilience and green growth.

However, the  realising the continent’s projected expansion will depend on aligning finance, regulation and planning with market realities.

For Zimbabwe, this alignment remains partial. Policy has lowered barriers to entry, but credible off-take arrangements, scalable financing mechanisms and institutional capacity to support large projects are still evolving.

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