• Lake Kariba’s usable storage rose to 11.83% as of 9 February 2026, up from 6% a year earlier
• Despite stronger hydrology, Kariba’s power output remains heavily constrained, producing well below its 1,050 MW capacity
• The ongoing power deficit has intensified pressure on Hwange Power Station and forced energy-intensive sectors such as mining to accelerate self-generation

Harare - Lake Kariba, southern Africa’s largest man-made reservoir and a linchpin of regional power supply, water levels has gradually risen to 11.83% as of 9 February 2026 from 6% in the same period last year according to the Zimbabwe Economic Review.

The increase to 477.21 metres from  476.39 meters in 2025,  is attributed to improved water  inflows from the Zambezi River Basin strengthen during the 2025/26 rainfall season.

However ,the new water levels are a still stark contrast from the 16.34% recorded in the same period in 2024.

After years of erratic rains and prolonged low water levels that strained electricity generation in both Zimbabwe and Zambia, the latest hydrological data points to a cautiously improving outlook though one that falls short of resolving the region’s deep-seated power shortages.

The rebound reflects stronger and more widespread rainfall across upstream Zambezi catchments rather than any structural change in the dam’s operating conditions. In practical terms, water availability remains constrained, and generation continues to be tightly controlled.

Kariba’s design limits mean that when levels approach the lower operating threshold, power output must be curtailed to preserve dam safety and future supply. This has defined power planning in both Zimbabwe and Zambia over the past two years, forcing utilities to prioritise water conservation over generation even as electricity demand continues to rise.

The recovery at Kariba is being driven by improving river flows across the Zambezi system. Hydrological data from upstream monitoring stations show significantly higher discharges compared with the same period last year, suggesting more sustained rainfall across large parts of the basin.

At Chavuma, a key upstream monitoring point, flows reached 1,763 cubic metres per second on 9 February 2026 more than double the 696 cubic metres per second recorded a year earlier.

The increase has been consistent since late January, indicating that upstream catchments are contributing steadily to reservoir inflows rather than delivering short-lived runoff.

Flows at Ngonye Falls have also strengthened, reaching 895 cubic metres per second compared with 586 cubic metres per second on the same date in 2025.

Together, these figures point to a broader hydrological recovery that reduces the risk of further sharp drawdowns during the remainder of the rainy season.

However, the inflows are improving from a historically weak base and are not yet sufficient to restore Kariba to levels that would allow normalised power generation.

Despite the improving hydrology, Kariba’s contribution to the regional grid remains sharply limited. With an installed capacity of 1,050 MW, the dam is currently struggling to generate even 300 MW, often producing 250 MW per day.

The impact on both Zimbabwe and Zambia has been substantial. Reduced generation at Kariba has translated into load shedding, disrupting industrial activity, raising production costs and undermining economic recovery.

The situation has highlighted the risks of heavy reliance on hydropower in an increasingly volatile climate.

In Zimbabwe, the shortfall has shifted pressure onto Hwange Power Station, now the country’s primary source of baseload electricity. While Units 7 and 8 are operational and together supply around 600 MW, the older Units 1 to 6 are underperforming, currently producing circa 300 MW combined.

Total output remains well below installed capacity, reflecting ageing infrastructure, maintenance challenges and operational inefficiencies.

The mining industry, a cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s export earnings and fiscal revenues, has been among the hardest hit by power constraints. Electricity demand from mining companies has surged to approximately 2,600 MW, far exceeding available supply from the national grid.

In response, many large power consumers have turned to self-generation, investing in diesel, solar and hybrid systems to stabilise operations. While this has helped protect output at the firm level, it has increased operating costs and highlighted the inefficiencies of a fragmented energy response.

The government has reiterated its commitment to expanding generation capacity and diversifying the energy mix, but progress has been uneven. Plans to add further units at Hwange remain under evaluation, with timelines shifting amid financing and implementation challenges.

Policy focus has increasingly shifted toward renewables, particularly solar, as a means of reducing reliance on hydropower. Wind energy potential is also under assessment, though commercial deployment remains uncertain.

Fiscal authorities have emphasised support for independent power producers, including facilitation of financial agreements and power purchase arrangements, while large electricity users are being encouraged to invest in captive generation.

Zimbabwe’s National Renewable Energy Policy targets the addition of 2,100 MW of renewable capacity by 2030, primarily from solar and small hydro projects. While the target is technically achievable, it will require substantial private capital, regulatory consistency and investment in grid infrastructure to be realised.

Equity Axis News