• Gold deliveries fell to 3,044.97 kg in January 2026 down 38.4% from December 2025's 4,941.72 kg and 3.9% from January 2025's 3,168.72 kg
• The government's late-2025 decision to implement a tiered royalty structure avoided a broad cost shock after prices first crossed US$5,000/oz in late January 2026
• The sector targets no lesser than 50-tonnes in 2026 (with ASM aiming for 60 tonnes), supported by record 2025 production of 46.7 tonnes, ongoing large-scale projects

Harare- Zimbabwe's gold sector, a cornerstone of the nation's economy and its primary foreign exchange earner, experienced a notable dip in output during January 2026, signalling a subdued start to what is anticipated to be another ambitious year for production.

According to data from Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR), the country's sole authorized gold buyer and exporter, deliveries totalled 3,044.97 kilograms in January 2026, a sharp 38.4% decline from December 2025's record 4,941.72 kilograms and a modest 3.9% drop compared to January 2025's 3,168.72 kilograms.

While this figure represents a slowdown, it remains the second-highest historical output for a January month, reflecting the sector's underlying resilience following a blockbuster 2025 where annual deliveries surged 28.1% to a record 46,729.06 kilograms.

The government has set an aggressive target of no less than 50 tonnes for 2026, driven by policy reforms, increased investment, and the continued dominance of artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM), who accounted for 2,236.56 kilograms or about 73% of January's deliveries.

The primary attribution for the January dip lies in post-holiday seasonality, a recurring pattern where mining activities slow down immediately after the December festive period, though it did not affect 2025’s output. Many miners, particularly in the ASM sector which dominates Zimbabwe's gold production, take extended breaks during the holidays to spend time with families or engage in subsistence farming, leading to reduced operational hours and delayed restarts.

This seasonal lull is exacerbated by that December often sees a production spike as miners push to meet year-end targets and capitalize on bonus payouts or festive spending needs, creating a natural contrast with January's lower momentum.

In 2025, for instance, December's exceptional output of nearly 5 tonnes capped a year of aggressive scaling, but the subsequent January consolidation reflects a period of recalibration, including equipment maintenance and workforce re-mobilization.

Delving deeper, environmental factors play a significant role in the January slowdown, particularly given Zimbabwe's climatic patterns. January falls squarely in the heart of the rainy season, which typically spans from November to March and brings heavy downpours that can flood open-pit mines, alluvial operations, and informal dig sites prevalent in ASM activities. Flooding not only hampers access to mining sites but also increases safety risks, such as landslides and equipment submersion, forcing many small-scale operators often working with rudimentary tools to suspend activities until conditions improve.

Historical data shows that wet weather has consistently depressed gold output during this period. Similar dips were observed in previous rainy seasons. In 2026, anecdotal reports from miners indicate that unusually heavy rains in key gold-producing regions like Matabeleland and Mashonaland exacerbated the issue, delaying de-watering efforts and reducing effective mining days.

Policy and regulatory adjustments also contributed to the dip, albeit indirectly, as the sector navigated fiscal changes. In late 2025, the government initially proposed doubling the gold royalty rate from 5% to 10% for prices above certain thresholds amid surging global gold prices. However, following strong protests from miners and industry groups, the policy was revised in the 2026 budget to a more progressive tiered structure: 5% royalty applies for gold prices between US$1,200 and US$5,000 per ounce, with the higher 10% rate only triggering when prices exceed US$5,000 per ounce.

This adjustment provided relief to producers by avoiding an immediate hike during a period when gold prices were climbing but had not yet consistently breached the US$5,000 mark in early 2026. While the reversal mitigated broader cost pressures, the initial uncertainty and front-loading of deliveries in late 2025 (to hedge against potential changes) likely contributed to the January consolidation and lower output as operations adjusted to the new regime.

Large-scale miners, who delivered 808.4 kilograms in January 2026 (down from 903.2 kilograms in January 2025), faced their own challenges, including planned maintenance shutdowns and supply chain disruptions for imported equipment amid currency volatility.

Economic pressures further compounded the January decline, with Zimbabwe's broader macroeconomic environment influencing operational costs.

Despite the ZiG currency's relative stability and single-digit inflation of 4.1% in January 2026, firms continued to grapple with high energy costs, and elevated borrowing rates under the central bank's contractionary policy. Power outages, though less severe than in previous years due to investments in solar and thermal capacity, still intermittently affected mechanized operations in large mines.

The dominance of ASM in January's output highlights both the sector's strengths and vulnerabilities. Contributing over 70% of deliveries, small-scale miners have been the engine of Zimbabwe's gold boom, benefiting from government support like formalised registration, access to funding, and better organisation.

However, their operations are highly susceptible to seasonal disruptions, with many relying on manual labour and exposed sites that are prone to weather impacts. In contrast, large-scale producers like Caledonia Mining's Blanket Mine have shown steadier performance through investments in technology and infrastructure.

Looking ahead, the Zimbabwe Miners Federation has set an ambitious 60-tonne target for ASM alone in 2026, calling for enhanced funding and policy stability to overcome these hurdles.

Despite the January dip, optimism prevails for meeting or exceeding the 50-tonne national target, bolstered by ongoing projects and a favourable global gold environment.

New developments, such as Kavango Resources' maiden resource estimate of 33,900 ounces at Bill's Luck and Caledonia's plans for the Bilboes project aiming for over 100,000 ounces annually by 2029 signal robust growth potential.

The central bank's strategy to build reserves through mineral purchases, which saw foreign currency holdings rise to US$1.1 billion by December 2025, further anchors the sector's role in economic stability. If seasonal and operational challenges are addressed through targeted interventions like improved drainage systems for rainy periods and streamlined royalties, the dip could prove a minor blip in Zimbabwe's golden trajectory.

Therefore, the January 2026 gold output dip stems from a confluence of seasonal, environmental, policy, and economic factors, but it does not undermine the sector's long-term momentum. With ASM's continued dominance and strategic investments on the horizon, Zimbabwe is well-positioned to achieve its 50-tonne target, reinforcing gold's pivotal role in driving exports, reserves, and overall economic resilience.

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