• Zimbabwe recorded 149.9 million kg in tobacco sales by Day 34 at an average price of US$2.65/kg, with exports reaching 83 million kg valued at US$545 million, up 66% in volume year-on-year
• Despite stronger volumes, prices have declined from US$3.51/kg in 2025 to US$2.65/kg in 2026, meaning equivalent volumes are generating significantly lower revenue
• Global supply increases across Africa and Brazil, combined with reduced Chinese demand, are creating a buyer’s market, placing sustained pressure on prices even as Zimbabwe expands output

Harare- Zimbabwe's 2026 tobacco marketing season has recorded cumulative sales of 149.9 million kilograms at an average price of USD 2.65 per kilogram by Day 34, with tobacco exports reaching 83 million kilograms valued at USD 545 million, a 66% increase in export volume compared to the equivalent period in 2025.

This was reported to Cabinet on 28 April 2026 by the Minister of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development, Dr Anxious Jongwe Masuka, in an update on summer crops marketing.

The export earnings figure of USD 545 million at Day 34 would, if sustained at an equivalent per-kilogram rate, extrapolate to a full-season export value comfortably above USD 1 billion, a threshold Zimbabwe breached for the first time in its tobacco history in the 2025 season.

Zimbabwe achieved a historic record in the 2025 tobacco marketing season, selling 354.8 million kilograms of leaf, generating over USD 1.2 billion in revenue. The 2026 season is outperforming that pace on volume at Day 34, with a 66% export volume surplus versus 2025 confirming that physical throughput has materially accelerated. Farmers have cultivated 164,536 hectares this season, about 15% more than in 2025, providing the production base for that volume improvement. By any measure of agricultural output, the 2026 crop is on trajectory to exceed its predecessor.

The price story is where the season's character becomes analytically complicated. The combined average price for the 2026 season was USD 2.68 per kilogram at Day 10, against USD 3.51 per kilogram on the same day in 2025, a 23.6% year-on-year price decline that the Cabinet briefing's USD 545 million export figure, presented alongside a 66% volume gain, partially obscures. At 149.9 million kilograms sold at an average USD 2.65 per kilogram, the implied cumulative revenue from sales is approximately USD 397 million.

Last year, 149.9 million kilograms at the 2025 average of USD 3.51 per kilogram would have generated approximately USD 526 million. The same volume of tobacco in 2026 is earning approximately USD 129 million less in revenue than it would have in 2025. The season is producing more and earning less per kilogram, a structural challenge that the volume headlines consistently understate.

The price compression is not Zimbabwe-specific. Five Southern African countries alone have increased output by an estimated 160 million kilograms, and Brazil has also raised production, intensifying competition in key export markets. China will reduce its intake by approximately 10 million kilograms from prior year levels, removing a volume of demand from the world's largest consumer market at precisely the moment when global supply is expanding.

The combination of supply expansion across African and South American origins and softening Chinese demand is the macro environment that Zimbabwe's tobacco industry is navigating, an environment that the government's 400 million kilogram production target, announced by VP Chiwenga at the ZITF International Business Conference, was designed to achieve without accounting for the price consequence of achieving it in a buyer's market.

The GMB Payment Arrears Embedded in the Cabinet Briefing

The Cabinet update disclosed, without fanfare, that as at 24 April 2026, the Grain Marketing Board had settled 88.26% of its USD obligations and 82.73% of ZiG payments to farmers, with USD 4,309,966.02 and ZiG 61,864,791.66 still outstanding. For a state entity managing the strategic grain reserve, collecting grain from communal farmers, and projecting receipt of 183,122 metric tonnes from ARDA alone in the current marketing season, carrying nearly USD 4.3 million in unsettled USD obligations to farmers who have already delivered their grain is a working capital management failure with direct consequences for farmer confidence in GMB as a reliable off-taker.

The Winter Crop Programme: Ambition Outpacing the Track Record

Cabinet approved a winter crop production plan targeting 140,500 hectares of wheat, barley, and Irish potatoes, projecting production of 956,350 metric tonnes. The winter wheat target alone is 125,000 hectares for an estimated 662,500 metric tonnes. These are significant targets. Zimbabwe's actual winter wheat output has consistently fallen short of comparable aspirations in recent years, constrained by irrigation infrastructure limitations, seed and fertiliser financing, and the same working capital gaps that the GMB arrears story illustrates.

A winter wheat target of 662,500 metric tonnes, if achieved, would materially reduce Zimbabwe's wheat import bill, wheat consistently ranks among the top cereal import categories alongside maize. If not achieved, it extends a pattern of winter season underperformance that the government's own post-harvest data has documented repeatedly.

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