• World Bank says current policies would delay upper-middle-income status from 2030 to 2036
• Zimbabwe’s 2025 GNI per capita of US$2,660 remains US$1,976 below the current threshold
• Structural reforms could lift real GDP 10.7% above baseline by 2030

Harare- Zimbabwe would reach upper-middle-income status around by 2036 under its current economic trajectory, six years after the Government’s Vision 2030 target, according to the World Bank’s latest Country Growth and Jobs Report, placing a measurable growth and productivity gap between recent macroeconomic stabilisation and the country’s long-term income ambition.

The World Bank estimates that continuation of current policies would produce average economic growth of approximately 4% through 2030. Its reform scenario raises real GDP by an additional 10.7% above that baseline by 2030 and 26.9% by 2040, alongside higher worker earnings and additional employment.

The assessment comes during the first year of Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 2, the final five-year policy programme carrying the country towards Vision 2030. NDS2 places the economy on an annual average growth trajectory above 5% and maintains Government’s position that the country remains on course towards a prosperous upper-middle-income society by the end of the decade.

The remaining distance is substantial when measured against the World Bank’s current income classification. Zimbabwe’s 2025 GNI per capita was approximately US$2,660, according to World Bank data. For the World Bank’s 2027 fiscal year, an economy enters the upper-middle-income category at US$4,636 per capita, using the Atlas method. Zimbabwe therefore sits about US$1,976 below the present entry point, leaving its measured income per person roughly 43% below the threshold.

Closing that gap requires considerably faster income growth than maintaining respectable headline GDP expansion alone. The upper-middle-income threshold also changes as the World Bank updates global income classifications, meaning Zimbabwe is pursuing a moving benchmark rather than a permanently fixed dollar level.

That distinction has become more important because the original Vision 2030 framework used an upper-middle-income entry threshold of US$3,956, based on the World Bank classification prevailing when the strategy was formulated. The current threshold is US$4,636, already about 17% higher than that original benchmark.

Zimbabwe has made considerable progress in raising nominal income since then. World Bank GNI data places per capita income at US$2,330 in 2021, US$2,580 in 2022, US$2,550 in 2023, US$2,400 in 2024 and US$2,660 in 2025. The movement has therefore been uneven, with last year’s improvement still leaving the economy well below the current classification boundary.

The World Bank has also lowered the scale of the growth acceleration required compared with its earlier assessment. Its 2022 Country Economic Memorandum estimated that Zimbabwe needed real growth of around 15% annually over 2023–2030 to achieve upper-middle-income status within the original timetable, supported by sharp gains in productivity, investment and exports.

The latest report starts from a stronger economic base following average real GDP growth of almost 6% between 2021 and 2025 and substantial improvement in inflation and exchange-rate stability. The development problem has therefore moved towards converting that stability into higher private investment, productive infrastructure and labour productivity.

The Bank identifies power, transport, irrigation, business regulation, financial-sector depth and debt arrears among the constraints holding back that conversion. Electricity shortages alone are estimated to cost Zimbabwe around 6.1% of GDP annually, while limited access to long-term finance restricts the ability of businesses to translate improved macroeconomic conditions into new productive capacity.

This puts the 2030 target increasingly into the realm of capital formation and productivity rather than annual growth announcements. Agriculture can deliver large rebounds after drought, mining can benefit from higher commodity prices and gold production can lift export receipts, yet income classification requires sustained growth in national income per person across several years.

The reform scenario provides a useful benchmark for measuring progress. Real GDP being 10.7% above the baseline by 2030 would require cumulative gains from improved electricity supply, easier trade, deeper credit markets, better investment conditions and stronger institutional execution rather than relying on cyclical recoveries in agriculture or mineral prices.

For companies and investors, that distinction matters because the path to upper-middle-income status would have to produce a larger formal consumer base, deeper financial markets, higher household purchasing power and greater domestic investment capacity. Growth concentrated in minerals or agriculture can expand national output without creating the same breadth of income transmission across households and enterprises.

The next four years therefore provide clear measurable tests. Zimbabwe needs sustained growth in GNI per capita, stronger private investment, higher productivity, greater formal employment and infrastructure improvements large enough to lift the economy above a rising international income threshold.

The World Bank’s 2036 estimate places a date on the current trajectory. Vision 2030 now requires Zimbabwe to outperform that trajectory sufficiently over the remaining four years to close an income gap approaching US$2,000 per person while the global classification threshold continues to move.

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