• Zimbabwe's trade surplus declined 91.1% to US$46.7 million as exports fell US$323.6 million
  • Nickel matte exports plunged 81.5%, while gold export receipts declined 12.6%
  • Diesel imports surged 63.2% to US$242 million, accounting for much of the import increase

Harare - Zimbabwe's merchandise trade surplus contracted by 91.1% to US$46.7 million in September 2026 from US$526.2 million in August, as declining gold and nickel export receipts coincided with a sharp increase in diesel imports, exposing the sensitivity of the country's external trade position to mineral shipments and energy requirements.

The US$479.5 million deterioration was driven primarily by a US$323.6 million contraction in exports, compounded by a US$155.9 million increase in imports. However, exports remained 59.1% above September 2025 levels, indicating that the monthly reversal occurred within a considerably stronger export environment than a year earlier.

According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency's September external trade report, merchandise exports declined by 19.3% to US$1.36 billion from US$1.68 billion in August, while imports increased 13.5% to US$1.31 billion from US$1.15 billion. The narrowing surplus reflected a simultaneous reduction in foreign-currency earnings from goods exports and an increase in expenditure on imported products, particularly petroleum fuels, machinery and transport equipment.

A detailed examination of commodity-level trade data identifies mineral exports as the principal source of the contraction. Semi-manufactured gold exports declined by 12.6% to US$645.6 million from US$738.6 million, representing a reduction of approximately US$93.1 million. Despite the decline, gold remained Zimbabwe's largest export commodity, accounting for 47.6% of total merchandise exports during September.

The sharpest proportional deterioration occurred in nickel mattes, whose export value fell by 81.5% to US$24.9 million from US$134.3 million in August. The US$109.4 million contraction exceeded the decline recorded in gold exports, illustrating the substantial effect that movements in individual mineral shipments can have on monthly trade performance. Nickel matte exports are associated with Zimbabwe's platinum group metals industry, where production, processing schedules and shipment timing influence the value recorded in customs statistics.

Other ores and concentrates registered a further US$90.4 million decline, falling 45.1% to US$110.2 million from US$200.7 million, while other mineral substances decreased 13% to US$284.3 million. Together with gold and nickel mattes, these four export categories recorded a combined reduction of approximately US$335.3 million, exceeding the overall US$323.6 million decline in merchandise exports as gains elsewhere partially offset the mineral contraction.

Tobacco provided one such offset. Exports of partly or wholly stemmed tobacco increased by approximately 110.4% to US$123.3 million from US$58.6 million, generating an additional US$64.7 million in receipts. The increase strengthened agriculture's contribution during the month, although the broader export composition remained heavily concentrated in minerals and industrial supplies.

The decline in mineral receipts requires careful distinction between export values and mining production. A reduction in monthly shipments can reflect the timing of deliveries, changes in export prices, inventory movements or weaker physical output. The available customs figures do not establish the respective contributions of these factors. The sharp contraction in nickel mattes consequently warrants comparison with mine production updates, processing volumes and shipment schedules before attributing the fall to deteriorating mining operations.

The longer export series provides an important measure of the country's underlying performance. September's US$1.36 billion in merchandise exports was substantially above the US$851.9 million recorded in September 2025, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 59.1%. Exports had also accelerated from US$884.1 million in May to US$1.44 billion in June, US$1.47 billion in July and US$1.68 billion in August, before moderating in September.

The figures indicate that Zimbabwe entered September following three consecutive months of relatively strong export receipts. The latest contraction reduced the gains accumulated during that period, although the country's merchandise exports remained above the levels recorded during the first five months of 2026. This provides a stronger basis for assessing external-sector performance than the monthly surplus movement in isolation.

On the import side, the most significant development was the sharp increase in petroleum expenditure. Imports of fuels and lubricants rose by 37.9% to US$346.9 million from US$251.6 million in August, contributing US$95.3 million to the total increase in imports. The category accounted for approximately 26.5% of Zimbabwe's September import bill.

The detailed customs series shows that diesel imports increased by 63.2% to US$242 million from US$148.3 million, adding approximately US$93.8 million in monthly expenditure. The diesel increase alone accounted for approximately 60.2% of the US$155.9 million rise in total merchandise imports, making it the largest identifiable contributor to the deterioration on the import side.

Zimbabwe's dependence on imported petroleum products creates substantial foreign-currency requirements across transport, mining, agriculture and manufacturing. Diesel remains an important input for commercial haulage, mining equipment, agricultural machinery and backup electricity generation. Higher import expenditure consequently increases demand for foreign currency, although its effect on domestic operating costs depends on fuel prices, transport arrangements and the extent to which businesses pass costs through to consumers.

The increase in diesel imports cannot be attributed exclusively to higher consumption. Changes in international petroleum prices, imported quantities and commercial inventory accumulation can all affect monthly customs values. Establishing the underlying driver requires a comparison of physical import volumes and average landed prices over the period.

Imports of capital goods excluding transport equipment also increased by US$14.8 million to US$266.3 million, while transport equipment imports rose by US$25.3 million to US$114.9 million. Industrial supplies increased to US$414.5 million from US$375.2 million. These movements indicate sustained expenditure on machinery, transport and intermediate production inputs, alongside the higher petroleum bill.

The composition of imports introduces an important consideration for Zimbabwe's industrialisation ambitions. Machinery and productive equipment can support manufacturing expansion, mining investment and improved industrial capacity, although their initial acquisition increases import expenditure before the associated investments generate additional output or export revenue. The commercial contribution depends on how effectively businesses deploy the imported equipment and the domestic value subsequently created.

Zimbabwe's cumulative trade position remained positive despite September's reversal. Based on the monthly series, exports reached approximately US$10.40 billion during the first nine months of 2026, against imports of US$9.76 billion, producing a merchandise surplus of approximately US$637 million. The cumulative figures indicate stronger export performance over the year, supported by the expansion in mineral receipts recorded during the preceding months.

The underlying concentration nevertheless leaves export earnings exposed to developments within a relatively narrow group of commodities. Gold and other mineral-related products dominate merchandise exports, while imported fuel and productive equipment account for a substantial share of foreign-currency expenditure. Changes in commodity shipment schedules and petroleum import requirements can therefore produce pronounced monthly movements in the trade balance.

For the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, the performance of merchandise exports remains relevant to foreign-currency availability and the broader external financing environment. Higher export receipts can support foreign-exchange liquidity and reserve accumulation, depending on settlement arrangements, surrender requirements and other foreign-currency flows. A monthly merchandise surplus, however, does not directly establish an equivalent improvement in official reserves or the balance of payments.

Zimbabwe's September trade figures reveal the vulnerability created by concentrated export earnings and substantial imported energy requirements. The 91.1% contraction in the surplus reflects a significant monthly reversal, while the 59.1% year-on-year growth in exports and positive nine-month trade balance demonstrate the strength accumulated during 2026. Sustaining that performance will require more consistent mineral export volumes, increased domestic value addition and improvements in the productivity of imported capital equipment. The immediate indicators to monitor are the recovery in nickel matte and gold shipments, physical diesel import volumes and the direction of export receipts during the final quarter of the year.

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