• An October 2026 IISD assessment for the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining finds the DRC's Musompo zone has moved past concept stage without reaching operational readiness, while Zambia's Ndola zone benefits from an existing economic-zone framework
• It recommends treating the initiative as a Southern African ecosystem and identifies Zimbabwe as a potential phosphate supplier
• Zimbabwe's US$400 million Arcadia lithium sulphate plant began exporting in April 2026. Bikita Minerals' US$400 million plant has been delayed to July 2027
• South Africa's Manganese Metal Company has completed commissioning a 6,000-tonne-a-year battery-grade manganese sulphate plant in Mbombela

Harare - Southern Africa's plan to build a battery-materials industry now depends on financing chemical plants that cost hundreds of millions of dollars each and need reliable power, specialised technology and assured buyers.

An assessment published on 6 October 2026 by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), as secretariat to the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development, finds that the battery zones planned by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia remain short of full investment readiness. Zimbabwe, which is moving its lithium industry into chemical processing ahead of a scheduled ban on concentrate exports from 1 January 2027, shows both the scale of capital required and the risk of plants arriving late.

The report, Building Competitive Battery Value Chains in the Central African Copperbelt, examines the proposed industrial zones at Musompo in the DRC and Ndola in Zambia, drawing on interviews with more than 40 stakeholders between October 2025 and February 2026. Musompo, launched in March 2025, has progressed beyond the concept stage, including land acquisition and the establishment of a compensation commission, but still lacks detailed feasibility studies, energy and infrastructure plans, financing and an operating model.

Ndola starts from a stronger position because it sits within Zambia's existing multi-facility economic zone framework supported by the Zambia Development Agency. The report recommends developing the two zones as complementary platforms, with Ndola positioned as a regional manufacturing and industrial-services hub.

The DRC and Zambia signed their battery value chain cooperation agreement in April 2022. The United States joined them in a memorandum of understanding at the US-Africa Leaders Summit in December 2022 to support the development of a regional electric vehicle battery supply chain. The IISD finds that coordination remains weak at the technical level, with no comprehensive implementation roadmap, timelines or performance indicators, frequent leadership changes in DRC institutions and limited publication of key studies. The two zones are approximately ten hours apart by road.

The prize is large. The report cites global battery value chain revenue of about US$85 billion in 2022, projected to exceed US$400 billion by 2030, with precursor and active-material manufacturing potentially representing about US$110 billion annually by 2030. The DRC produces approximately three-quarters of the world's cobalt, while Zambia is one of Africa's leading copper producers. Yet stakeholders consulted by IISD highlighted the limited share of downstream mineral value currently captured within the two economies.

Missing inputs limit what the two countries can build alone. Neither produces graphite or phosphate at the commercial scale required for an integrated battery industry, while battery-grade graphite processing remains heavily concentrated in Asia. The IISD recommends treating the initiative as a Southern African ecosystem using AfCFTA, SADC and COMESA frameworks. It identifies Mozambique, Tanzania and Madagascar as potential graphite suppliers, Madagascar and South Africa for nickel, South Africa and the Republic of the Congo for iron, Botswana and South Africa for manganese refining, and Zimbabwe as a potential phosphate supplier.

Zimbabwe's inclusion as a phosphate source connects the battery agenda to a domestic industry that has faced prolonged operational difficulties. Dorowa Minerals, the country's phosphate mine, suspended operations in April 2025, while Mutapa Investment Fund allocated US$5.3 million for the first phase of its refurbishment. Phosphate is used in fertiliser production and provides a potential feedstock for lithium iron phosphate battery chemistry, although supplying the latter would require additional chemical processing and stringent quality standards. A restored Dorowa could therefore support the development of both value chains, subject to investment in the necessary downstream facilities.

Zimbabwe's lithium industry shows the commitments involved in moving from concentrate to chemicals. Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe figures show lithium sales of about US$2.31 billion between 1 January and 27 October 2026. Spodumene concentrate accounted for US$1.924 billion and petalite concentrate for about US$190 million, bringing combined concentrate sales to approximately US$2.114 billion. These products accounted for about 91.5% of lithium sales during the period, illustrating the scale of existing revenue streams potentially affected by the January restrictions.

Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, commissioned a US$400 million lithium sulphate plant at its Arcadia mine in late 2025 and began exporting in April 2026, marking Africa's first reported commercial lithium sulphate exports. The plant has reported nameplate capacity of approximately 50,000 tonnes annually. Management aims to split future output equally between lithium sulphate and crude lithium carbonate and expects to begin producing crude lithium carbonate by the end of 2026 once additional equipment is commissioned. Crude lithium carbonate would require further refining to meet battery-grade specifications.

Dividing the US$400 million investment by 50,000 tonnes of annual capacity gives capital of about US$8,000 per tonne of installed annual capacity. Bikita's planned US$400 million plant for 100,000 tonnes implies about US$4,000 per tonne. These ratios compare investment with capacity. They are not production costs, and returns depend on plant utilisation, lithium recovery, reagent and power costs, financing and realised prices. Buyers also require products that meet the relevant chemical specifications, making chemical conversion more demanding than adding mining or concentration capacity.

Bikita shows the timing risk. Sinomine-owned Bikita Minerals disclosed on 9 October 2026 that its US$400 million lithium sulphate plant, designed for 100,000 tonnes annually, would be ready for commissioning in July 2027. The company had previously targeted March 2027, itself later than the January restriction. Management attributed the delay to equipment shipping and other supply-chain problems. The company has requested an extension of the beneficiation deadline and a review of taxes and royalties, arguing that volatile lithium markets increase the financial pressure on companies undertaking substantial processing investments. Bikita employs approximately 1,400 people directly, with additional employment through contractors.

Government has rejected calls for further delay. Nick Mangwana, permanent secretary in the Ministry of Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services, said on 9 October that producers had been given sufficient time to prepare and that further extensions were unjustified. Under the announced restrictions, Bikita faces a potential six-month gap between the January 2027 deadline and its planned July commissioning date. The commercial effect will depend on the final export arrangements, existing authorisations and the availability of alternative processing arrangements.

That gap carries a potential cost beyond the capital already spent. A mine must continue meeting labour, power, maintenance and contractor expenses while unsold concentrate accumulates, tying up working capital during the construction phase. Reuters reported in July 2026 that Arcadia's plant was designed around its own concentrate and could not accommodate feedstock from other miners. The facility therefore does not provide spare conversion capacity for producers whose own plants remain under construction.

The financing lesson applies across the region. Mines and chemical plants run on different investment timetables, and lenders to chemical plants need confidence in feed volumes, product specifications and long-term buyers before construction starts. Export bans establish regulatory deadlines, while financing and construction readiness depend on separate commercial and technical conditions.

The DRC and Zambia face a related challenge further along the chain. Cobalt and copper supply some battery chemistries and much of the electrical infrastructure around them, while precursor production requires specialised refining, chemical purification, skilled personnel and additional inputs. The IISD identifies the need to strengthen applied industrial research and technical capabilities, including through regional institutions supporting battery value chain development.

South Africa has advanced its manganese processing capacity. Manganese Metal Company completed commissioning the first phase of a battery-grade high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate plant in Mbombela in 2026, with installed capacity of approximately 6,000 tonnes annually. The facility has begun producing qualification samples for potential customers, while the company is evaluating further expansion towards 30,000 tonnes of annual capacity. The plant builds on South Africa's existing manganese processing and chemical industries and introduces a regional source of material used in several lithium-ion cathode chemistries.

The region now has lithium chemical production in Zimbabwe, copper and cobalt industries in the Copperbelt and emerging battery-grade manganese chemical capacity in South Africa. These materials serve different chemistries and customers, so proximity alone does not create a battery supply chain. Each link must compete on delivered cost and quality with established international suppliers, particularly those in Asia.

Electricity is a binding constraint. Chemical conversion and refining require reliable power, while interruptions can disrupt operations, reduce output and increase costs. The Southern African Power Pool traded 191.2 GWh across its competitive markets in August 2026, up 16.1% from a year earlier, while transmission bottlenecks along the central corridor prevented 33% of matched bids from being traded. The figure describes cross-border electricity trading rather than supply to individual processing plants, but demonstrates limitations in the regional grid infrastructure needed to support greater industrial integration.

Transport adds cost at both ends. Processing plants import machinery, reagents and spare parts and export finished chemicals through regional ports. Border delays, weak rail networks and dependence on road freight raise the working capital tied up in inventory. The IISD identifies high logistics costs and infrastructure bottlenecks among the constraints affecting the Copperbelt zones, while Zimbabwe's lithium processors depend on regional transport corridors to reach international markets.

Environmental management adds to capital and operating costs. Lithium and other battery chemical plants can generate wastewater, residues and chemical waste requiring treatment and monitoring. Inadequate management can create environmental liabilities, regulatory exposure and disputes with surrounding communities.

Southern Africa's opportunity lies in selective processing, with each step judged on its capital requirements and competitiveness. Lithium chemicals in Zimbabwe, manganese sulphate in South Africa, industrial services at Ndola and phosphate from a rehabilitated Dorowa could each support commercially viable markets without the region immediately establishing a complete battery manufacturing chain.

With Zimbabwe's lithium processing investments advancing towards commissioning, greater attention is shifting to the commercial viability of these facilities, including production costs, capacity utilisation and access to international markets. Arcadia's planned expansion into lithium carbonate and Bikita's sulphate processing project will deepen domestic beneficiation, while the proposed Musompo industrial zone and regional electricity transmission investments remain critical to the development of a more integrated Southern African battery-material supply chain. The region's industrial competitiveness will depend increasingly on reliable energy, efficient logistics and the ability of processing facilities to produce battery materials at costs competitive with established international suppliers.

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